{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e13e4380-d802-4013-8d3b-94e50b79d245", "symbol": "603970", "name": "Sino-Agri Leading Biosciences Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.999, "architecture_energy": 51.149, "architecture_maturity": 94.032, "architecture_confidence": 78.726, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.1, "rotation_up": 28.49, "upward_expansion": 13.72, "deceleration": 60.95, "rotation_down": 43.11, "downward_expansion": 73.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.175333, 10.175804, 10.72899, 11.293047 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.46, "trend_reference": 12.025496, "distance_from_trend": -0.130181, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.114262, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.258906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.889448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.258156, "excess_performance": -0.214952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130181, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074429, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.258906, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121036, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026279, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.258156, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.579971, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13820506, "relative_activity": 1.518609, "balance": 0.579971, "dry_up": 1.30496, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063219, "annualized_volatility": 0.256606, "from_high_reference": -0.297987, "from_low_reference": 0.08845 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.025496, "fair_value_reference": 14.114262, "structural_low": 9.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.009764, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.014596, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.188452, "worst_return": -0.134454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004457, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002174, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.224152, "worst_return": -0.185843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007863, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.072054, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.121547, "worst_return": -0.180153, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-03", "close": 10.31, "volume": 2358812, "typical_volume": 11303586.7, "trend": 12.50183, "fair_value": 14.382713, "relative_strength": -23.391842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.027165, "energy": 87.630127, "activity_lines": [ 10.285946, 10.783007, 11.510773, 12.000712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.03, "volume": 8047981, "typical_volume": 10934651.8, "trend": 12.399496, "fair_value": 14.326338, "relative_strength": -23.936938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.812565, "energy": 88.628079, "activity_lines": [ 10.150667, 10.554393, 11.311369, 11.841239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.14, "volume": 9980995, "typical_volume": 10673264.9, "trend": 12.313163, "fair_value": 14.27079, "relative_strength": -17.737008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.013541, "energy": 76.242542, "activity_lines": [ 10.116667, 10.396584, 11.138345, 11.695465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.66, "volume": 12045371, "typical_volume": 10167445.35, "trend": 12.19883, "fair_value": 14.212528, "relative_strength": -21.999876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.564834, "energy": 68.139446, "activity_lines": [ 9.962667, 10.19819, 10.938179, 11.524294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.26, "volume": 11657644, "typical_volume": 9532264.1, "trend": 12.105496, "fair_value": 14.161753, "relative_strength": -16.864851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.948093, "energy": 60.626286, "activity_lines": [ 10.048667, 10.154593, 10.81568, 11.399208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.46, "volume": 13820506, "typical_volume": 9100764.4, "trend": 12.025496, "fair_value": 14.114262, "relative_strength": -16.889448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.998975, "energy": 51.148931, "activity_lines": [ 10.175333, 10.175804, 10.72899, 11.293047 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }