{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e141c230-de3a-4f10-a331-c3d107b78c8f", "symbol": "600792", "name": "Yunnan Coal & Energy Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.517, "architecture_energy": 37.427, "architecture_maturity": 51.334, "architecture_confidence": 57.633, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.7, "rotation_up": 24.25, "upward_expansion": 16.59, "deceleration": 65.96, "rotation_down": 43.66, "downward_expansion": 66.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.444667, 3.439091, 3.682762, 3.885914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.6, "trend_reference": 4.097667, "distance_from_trend": -0.121451, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.856926, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066614, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.72839, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.219089, "excess_performance": -0.175885, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121451, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06024, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066614, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179102, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117284, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070963, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219089, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.115963, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97453753, "relative_activity": 0.732051, "balance": 1.115963, "dry_up": 0.806064, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111111, "annualized_volatility": 0.620032, "from_high_reference": -0.388795, "from_low_reference": 0.157556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.097667, "fair_value_reference": 3.856926, "structural_low": 3.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.022005, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.008507, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.257627, "worst_return": -0.1525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.018674, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.001959, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.199336, "worst_return": -0.205964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.047685, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.02782, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.144172, "worst_return": -0.071795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.99987, "energy": 81.471832, "activity_lines": [ 3.372, 3.660182, 3.927381, 4.07471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.2, "volume": 109371600, "typical_volume": 164447117.9, "trend": 4.147667, "fair_value": 3.857441, "relative_strength": -18.868664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.761238, "energy": 83.021728, "activity_lines": [ 3.271333, 3.544182, 3.834714, 4.011656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.35, "volume": 138758094, "typical_volume": 151091133.55, "trend": 4.124333, "fair_value": 3.856436, "relative_strength": -15.766365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.09831, "energy": 76.3237, "activity_lines": [ 3.280667, 3.474545, 3.76481, 3.960194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.48, "volume": 83642900, "typical_volume": 139477437.3, "trend": 4.107, "fair_value": 3.856391, "relative_strength": -12.52546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.574961, "energy": 50.736506, "activity_lines": [ 3.351333, 3.441636, 3.714619, 3.918624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.6, "volume": 97453753, "typical_volume": 133124222.8, "trend": 4.097667, "fair_value": 3.856926, "relative_strength": -11.72839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.516702, "energy": 37.426953, "activity_lines": [ 3.444667, 3.439091, 3.682762, 3.885914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }