{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1422ef1-c0d1-4010-bba3-cc95806f6565", "symbol": "KXI", "name": "iShares Global Consumer Staples ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.792, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.342, "architecture_energy": 34.109, "architecture_maturity": 10.899, "architecture_confidence": 65.299, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.18, "rotation_up": 58.56, "upward_expansion": 42.78, "deceleration": 24.02, "rotation_down": 19.28, "downward_expansion": 26.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 1203.399992, 1197.849059, 1187.744903, 1193.37955 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1214.599976, "trend_reference": 1201.105872, "distance_from_trend": 0.011235, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1232.752303, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014725, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.635821, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.00849, "excess_performance": 0.046177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011235, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001615, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014725, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02533, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108885, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00849, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.272527, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56, "relative_activity": 0.707071, "balance": 0.272527, "dry_up": 1.107955, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016848, "annualized_volatility": 0.148451, "from_high_reference": -0.047373, "from_low_reference": 0.065332 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1201.105872, "fair_value_reference": 1232.752303, "structural_low": 1140.113647, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.020672, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014017, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.020672, "worst_return": 0.020672, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-06-19", "close": 1171.430054, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3866.05, "trend": 1200.609062, "fair_value": 1236.753046, "relative_strength": -8.859648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.862351, "energy": 43.711656, "activity_lines": [ 1168.251522, 1170.127128, 1183.932204, 1193.380464 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1207.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3852.95, "trend": 1201.145776, "fair_value": 1236.219423, "relative_strength": -5.043284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.35698, "energy": 20.89104, "activity_lines": [ 1180.329574, 1177.633565, 1184.437936, 1193.792783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1207.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3852.95, "trend": 1201.682491, "fair_value": 1235.685801, "relative_strength": -4.451532, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.599426, "energy": 15.748944, "activity_lines": [ 1190.846566, 1183.923886, 1185.029383, 1194.170475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1190.0, "volume": 78, "typical_volume": 70.65, "trend": 1201.652539, "fair_value": 1235.043204, "relative_strength": -4.577815, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.653348, "energy": 24.04442, "activity_lines": [ 1193.279598, 1185.907182, 1184.087497, 1193.416766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1197.0, "volume": 206, "typical_volume": 80.4, "trend": 1201.385872, "fair_value": 1234.445479, "relative_strength": -3.784428, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.359213, "energy": 25.199083, "activity_lines": [ 1196.762004, 1188.256181, 1184.071944, 1193.116602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1174.0, "volume": 47, "typical_volume": 74.3, "trend": 1200.352539, "fair_value": 1233.700317, "relative_strength": -4.861059, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.69834, "energy": 17.358061, "activity_lines": [ 1189.933333, 1186.323142, 1182.237344, 1191.349771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1218.0, "volume": 42, "typical_volume": 76.4, "trend": 1200.785872, "fair_value": 1233.237208, "relative_strength": -1.716322, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.395051, "energy": 14.119597, "activity_lines": [ 1197.6, 1192.708066, 1185.036267, 1192.488317 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1214.599976, "volume": 56, "typical_volume": 79.2, "trend": 1201.105872, "fair_value": 1232.752303, "relative_strength": -1.635821, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.342028, "energy": 34.109265, "activity_lines": [ 1203.399992, 1197.849059, 1187.744903, 1193.37955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }