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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.768, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.741, "architecture_energy": 56.152, "architecture_maturity": 26.731, "architecture_confidence": 62.772, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.55, "rotation_up": 67.12, "upward_expansion": 81.84, "deceleration": 62.8, "rotation_down": 14.58, "downward_expansion": 8.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.332333, 34.085735, 33.294792, 32.943043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.095001, "trend_reference": 32.540822, "distance_from_trend": 0.047761, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.343095, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123649, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.757234, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057398, "excess_performance": -0.113493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047761, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035146, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123649, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067656, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077572, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030178, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057398, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.061586, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60255, "relative_activity": 0.771016, "balance": 1.061586, "dry_up": 0.782382, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026135, "annualized_volatility": 0.133092, "from_high_reference": -0.043082, "from_low_reference": 0.146307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.540822, "fair_value_reference": 30.343095, "structural_low": 30.700001, 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"2026-07-03", "close": 33.865002, "volume": 27210, "typical_volume": 91095.9, "trend": 31.881459, "fair_value": 30.073017, "relative_strength": -7.927377, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.466227, "energy": 85.148209, "activity_lines": [ 33.408697, 32.851097, 32.386084, 32.236114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.825001, "volume": 44588, "typical_volume": 83453.5, "trend": 31.997123, "fair_value": 30.127797, "relative_strength": -7.406064, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.975715, "energy": 83.161375, "activity_lines": [ 33.629667, 33.102269, 32.531933, 32.361504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.849998, "volume": 97083, "typical_volume": 84882.65, "trend": 32.146126, "fair_value": 30.185223, "relative_strength": -3.052088, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.090671, "energy": 91.350372, "activity_lines": [ 34.095333, 33.503728, 32.770517, 32.54556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.814999, "volume": 32943, "typical_volume": 82437.5, "trend": 32.304872, "fair_value": 30.239512, "relative_strength": -2.817017, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.340266, "energy": 89.006562, "activity_lines": [ 34.439, 33.835473, 32.997044, 32.717745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.134998, "volume": 54292, "typical_volume": 81994.9, "trend": 32.433017, "fair_value": 30.291922, "relative_strength": -5.143469, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.083785, "energy": 66.500708, "activity_lines": [ 34.399999, 33.980866, 33.151477, 32.835818 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.095001, "volume": 60255, "typical_volume": 78150.1, "trend": 32.540822, "fair_value": 30.343095, "relative_strength": -7.757234, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.741488, "energy": 56.152144, "activity_lines": [ 34.332333, 34.085735, 33.294792, 32.943043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }