{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e15bf691-55a7-40cf-8675-84262816d568", "symbol": "3018", "name": "Lung Ming Green Energy Technology Engineering Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.499, "architecture_energy": 72.48, "architecture_maturity": 15.905, "architecture_confidence": 64.53, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.69, "rotation_up": 73.63, "upward_expansion": 89.36, "deceleration": 45.45, "rotation_down": 8.81, "downward_expansion": 16.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.976667, 13.270909, 12.301381, 12.058796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.7, "trend_reference": 11.925333, "distance_from_trend": 0.148815, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.959808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.237186, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.662053, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.118367, "excess_performance": -0.323005, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.148815, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02846, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.237186, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223356, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226621, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.302205, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118367, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.907179, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 472825, "relative_activity": 1.953772, "balance": 1.907179, "dry_up": 3.075404, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103818, "annualized_volatility": 0.486985, "from_high_reference": -0.275132, "from_low_reference": 0.481081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.925333, "fair_value_reference": 17.959808, "structural_low": 9.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010121, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.021037, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.619672, "worst_return": -0.196172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.027397, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.085341, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.914754, "worst_return": -0.369973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.04439, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.10441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.862295, "worst_return": -0.437799, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.135447, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.291936, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.069667, "worst_return": -0.64689, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067516, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103142, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003559, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.901639, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047535, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.505639, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", 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-35.967521, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.869637, "energy": 40.5697, "activity_lines": [ 11.983333, 11.543455, 11.268762, 11.432989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.65, "volume": 135431, "typical_volume": 107625.65, "trend": 11.587, "fair_value": 18.187692, "relative_strength": -33.090787, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.253488, "energy": 33.751247, "activity_lines": [ 11.88, 11.644182, 11.28919, 11.437591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.0, "volume": 277258, "typical_volume": 114524.8, "trend": 11.630333, "fair_value": 18.121026, "relative_strength": -25.992297, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.526679, "energy": 45.527515, "activity_lines": [ 12.243333, 11.963091, 11.445095, 11.528753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.5, "volume": 1745503, "typical_volume": 198346.4, "trend": 11.755333, "fair_value": 18.069744, "relative_strength": -9.760307, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.757466, "energy": 74.073324, "activity_lines": [ 13.366667, 12.681273, 11.839571, 11.778409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.25, "volume": 481481, "typical_volume": 219452.8, "trend": 11.848667, "fair_value": 18.013013, "relative_strength": -18.126149, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.278698, "energy": 74.63089, "activity_lines": [ 13.84, 13.07, 12.101429, 11.939355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.7, "volume": 472825, "typical_volume": 242006.2, "trend": 11.925333, "fair_value": 17.959808, "relative_strength": -22.662053, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.499118, "energy": 72.48045, "activity_lines": [ 13.976667, 13.270909, 12.301381, 12.058796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }