{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e15bfda3-3f48-4d36-9efc-bd3105a709ce", "symbol": "600651", "name": "Shanghai Feilo Acoustics Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.981, "architecture_energy": 44.563, "architecture_maturity": 89.33, "architecture_confidence": 70.264, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.16, "rotation_up": 28.16, "upward_expansion": 20.68, "deceleration": 64.01, "rotation_down": 48.44, "downward_expansion": 70.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.678, 5.635091, 6.001571, 6.351269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.4, "trend_reference": 6.871, "distance_from_trend": -0.068549, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.878397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.311906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.044977, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.217604, "excess_performance": -0.1744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068549, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094372, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.311906, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217604, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.493186, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116676458, "relative_activity": 1.296983, "balance": 0.493186, "dry_up": 1.177281, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077764, "annualized_volatility": 0.371435, "from_high_reference": -0.372549, "from_low_reference": 0.285141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.871, "fair_value_reference": 4.878397, "structural_low": 4.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.011869, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.014135, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.139286, "worst_return": -0.157143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.017804, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.032799, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.805755, "worst_return": -0.239888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.059375, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.064472, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.071253, "worst_return": -0.07989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103004, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007732, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022113, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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104226052, "typical_volume": 88591399.65, "trend": 7.038, "fair_value": 4.844936, "relative_strength": -25.937232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.671592, "energy": 90.400636, "activity_lines": [ 5.454, 5.757818, 6.234429, 6.604516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.04, "volume": 93914736, "typical_volume": 87025361.35, "trend": 6.956667, "fair_value": 4.851538, "relative_strength": -28.375424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.519892, "energy": 86.401661, "activity_lines": [ 5.286667, 5.570545, 6.087381, 6.475613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.53, "volume": 108815304, "typical_volume": 88240749.2, "trend": 6.900667, "fair_value": 4.861795, "relative_strength": -21.813133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.702294, "energy": 64.942843, "activity_lines": [ 5.34, 5.510364, 5.998905, 6.38357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.4, "volume": 116676458, "typical_volume": 89959921.2, "trend": 6.871, "fair_value": 4.878397, "relative_strength": -12.044977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.980714, "energy": 44.563124, "activity_lines": [ 5.678, 5.635091, 6.001571, 6.351269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }