{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e166ac21-5b9f-48bd-9a4e-0ea7ef8350f5", "symbol": "BPCL", "name": "Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 78.738, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.416, "architecture_energy": 26.124, "architecture_maturity": 10.425, "architecture_confidence": 64.904, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.11, "rotation_up": 42.62, "upward_expansion": 39.41, "deceleration": 27.81, "rotation_down": 15.99, "downward_expansion": 45.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 317.019997, 313.373634, 307.528334, 310.021566 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 321.0, "trend_reference": 319.303561, "distance_from_trend": 0.005313, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 279.135199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.14998, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.242842, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.169147, "excess_performance": -0.125438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005313, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045491, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.14998, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014429, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032607, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169147, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.153566, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23276043, "relative_activity": 0.579677, "balance": 2.153566, "dry_up": 0.83844, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042392, "annualized_volatility": 0.309713, "from_high_reference": -0.180391, "from_low_reference": 0.204051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 319.303561, "fair_value_reference": 279.135199, "structural_low": 266.600006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.020587, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.007095, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.224971, "worst_return": -0.11095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.147221, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.088045, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.576095, "worst_return": -0.176517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.115277, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.012219, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.847664, "worst_return": -0.20029, "sufficient": true }, { 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-4.254549, "energy": 12.561959, "activity_lines": [ 311.153329, 306.872726, 303.259287, 310.943935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 310.149994, "volume": 44980779, "typical_volume": 45561450.45, "trend": 321.792526, "fair_value": 276.976657, "relative_strength": -0.158351, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.676045, "energy": 13.696088, "activity_lines": [ 311.216661, 308.258179, 303.898572, 310.09429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 319.75, "volume": 28254737, "typical_volume": 42808458.05, "trend": 320.084693, "fair_value": 278.053457, "relative_strength": 0.215157, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.823366, "energy": 16.220167, "activity_lines": [ 314.243329, 310.921816, 305.655001, 309.962514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 321.0, "volume": 23276043, "typical_volume": 40153441.4, "trend": 319.303561, "fair_value": 279.135199, "relative_strength": -0.242842, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.416448, "energy": 26.124461, "activity_lines": [ 317.019997, 313.373634, 307.528334, 310.021566 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }