{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e167cd7e-d794-4867-aaaa-dc5818e0cf94",
    "symbol": "9937",
    "name": "National Petroleum Co., Ltd.",
    "exchange": "TAI",
    "country": "TW",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-14",
    "benchmark": "^TWII",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 59.127,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 17.978,
    "architecture_energy": 34.719,
    "architecture_maturity": 4.702,
    "architecture_confidence": 56.969,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 43.58,
        "rotation_up": 58.56,
        "upward_expansion": 44.6,
        "deceleration": 26.29,
        "rotation_down": 15.24,
        "downward_expansion": 19.6
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        55.313332,
        54.715263,
        54.299808,
        54.377665
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 55.099998,
    "trend_reference": 54.62055,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.008778,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 58.786684,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.062713,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -30.254761,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.002029,
    "excess_performance": -0.439343,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008778,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007152,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.062713,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022608,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.302548,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.067216,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002029,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.710955,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 107003,
      "relative_activity": 0.470268,
      "balance": 0.710955,
      "dry_up": 0.784095,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029324,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.103488,
      "from_high_reference": -0.118214,
      "from_low_reference": 0.071329
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 54.62055,
      "fair_value_reference": 58.786684,
      "structural_low": 51.431456,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.02439,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.029616,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.02439,
        "worst_return": -0.02439,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.006098,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016386,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.006098,
        "worst_return": -0.006098,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.007114,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007282,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.007114,
        "worst_return": -0.007114,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.050531,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.217997,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.050531,
        "worst_return": 0.050531,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2024-01-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.04298,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-02-02",
        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.01632,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-04-05",
        "end": "2024-05-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.00744,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-05-31",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.059927,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009317,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.004747,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.052632,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.056172,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.047002,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.005263,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.031524,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.043993,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-10",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.031046,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-11",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 456573.7,
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        "relative_strength": -29.928891,
        "stage": 4,
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        "direction": -13.077777,
        "energy": 12.292649,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 56.200001,
        "volume": 258575,
        "typical_volume": 283453.45,
        "trend": 54.622724,
        "fair_value": 58.882406,
        "relative_strength": -26.568205,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 29.171388,
        "energy": 29.261082,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.05263,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 55.099998,
        "volume": 134892,
        "typical_volume": 245288.9,
        "trend": 54.620035,
        "fair_value": 58.833389,
        "relative_strength": -28.792465,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 16.958391,
        "energy": 27.948684,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.257199,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "close": 55.099998,
        "volume": 107003,
        "typical_volume": 227536.4,
        "trend": 54.62055,
        "fair_value": 58.786684,
        "relative_strength": -30.254761,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 17.977727,
        "energy": 34.71927,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}