{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e169163c-f70c-4d87-985f-5197e8118aa2", "symbol": "603298", "name": "Hangcha Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.216, "architecture_energy": 17.52, "architecture_maturity": 7.525, "architecture_confidence": 62.182, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.74, "rotation_up": 55.22, "upward_expansion": 41.1, "deceleration": 32.73, "rotation_down": 19.28, "downward_expansion": 16.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.628, 26.079636, 25.980213, 26.013317 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.139999, "trend_reference": 26.247845, "distance_from_trend": -0.004109, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.538081, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272758, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.461653, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043236, "excess_performance": -3.2e-05, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004109, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007035, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272758, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188399, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014617, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060698, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043236, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.74866, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37018962, "relative_activity": 1.303849, "balance": 0.74866, "dry_up": 1.33238, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076452, "annualized_volatility": 0.330146, "from_high_reference": -0.155259, "from_low_reference": 0.283652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.247845, "fair_value_reference": 20.538081, "structural_low": 22.890787, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.022677, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.011939, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.188727, "worst_return": -0.220649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048423, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.100783, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.29217, "worst_return": -0.204696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.404819, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.251969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.49578, "worst_return": -0.267332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.328697, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.180191, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.910725, "worst_return": -0.220808, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.314389, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.133146, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093536, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.228426, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058587, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026468, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066745, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138094, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087423, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06942, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 16.066666, "volume": 51470226, "typical_volume": 46341468.35, "trend": 13.529026, "fair_value": 11.420266, "relative_strength": 29.68135, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 26.370001, "volume": 42771845, "typical_volume": 28242664.9, "trend": 26.20843, "fair_value": 20.397591, "relative_strength": 6.413684, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.861445, "energy": 13.762225, "activity_lines": [ 25.874, 25.495763, 25.701459, 25.898926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.09, "volume": 32429722, "typical_volume": 28192513.8, "trend": 26.248494, "fair_value": 20.47582, "relative_strength": 12.3881, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.35854, "energy": 20.953878, "activity_lines": [ 26.704, 25.975273, 25.940305, 26.020317 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.139999, "volume": 37018962, "typical_volume": 28392070.0, "trend": 26.247845, "fair_value": 20.538081, "relative_strength": 1.461653, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.216387, "energy": 17.520421, "activity_lines": [ 26.628, 26.079636, 25.980213, 26.013317 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }