{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e16d56ce-4be6-461e-aefa-9940b9c95328", "symbol": "601789", "name": "Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.408, "architecture_energy": 48.303, "architecture_maturity": 57.212, "architecture_confidence": 72.287, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.08, "rotation_up": 26.41, "upward_expansion": 19.93, "deceleration": 65.2, "rotation_down": 48.22, "downward_expansion": 72.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.212, 4.179286, 4.599751, 4.881021 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.33, "trend_reference": 5.139223, "distance_from_trend": -0.15746, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.659148, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.070646, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.985476, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.167308, "excess_performance": -0.124104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15746, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.070646, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.405117, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207966, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.262879, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 197689593, "relative_activity": 0.635347, "balance": 0.262879, "dry_up": 0.700865, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093695, "annualized_volatility": 0.499758, "from_high_reference": -0.45875, "from_low_reference": 0.127604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.139223, "fair_value_reference": 4.659148, "structural_low": 3.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.007246, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.002818, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.154728, "worst_return": -0.070103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.07817, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.059173, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.310925, "worst_return": -0.183761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.058071, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.073165, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.258152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -22.031599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.00367, "energy": 87.075975, "activity_lines": [ 4.043181, 4.297106, 4.857704, 5.064376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.01, "volume": 209770134, "typical_volume": 430309333.55, "trend": 5.184556, "fair_value": 4.662033, "relative_strength": -21.499293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.268825, "energy": 78.475008, "activity_lines": [ 4.015708, 4.182803, 4.741291, 4.986555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.38, "volume": 292852232, "typical_volume": 366057249.35, "trend": 5.161223, "fair_value": 4.660996, "relative_strength": -14.175795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.975514, "energy": 58.156345, "activity_lines": [ 4.13455, 4.172863, 4.667164, 4.934648 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.33, "volume": 197689593, "typical_volume": 311151925.7, "trend": 5.139223, "fair_value": 4.659148, "relative_strength": -16.985476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.407553, "energy": 48.30275, "activity_lines": [ 4.212, 4.179286, 4.599751, 4.881021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }