{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e16d8ccd-41e4-4978-bff5-757380296ab0", "symbol": "EL", "name": "The Est\u00e9e Lauder Companies Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.962, "architecture_energy": 4.793, "architecture_maturity": 76.716, "architecture_confidence": 68.357, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.19, "rotation_up": 29.17, "upward_expansion": 32.39, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 19.58, "downward_expansion": 43.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 1463.312671, 1453.307824, 1440.198146, 1462.122008 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1508.0, "trend_reference": 1546.617643, "distance_from_trend": -0.024969, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1807.049006, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16549, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.690919, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131484, "excess_performance": -0.076817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024969, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071982, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16549, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092791, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105666, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131484, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.911202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31, "relative_activity": 0.10546, "balance": 0.911202, "dry_up": 0.265351, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03764, "annualized_volatility": 0.42857, "from_high_reference": -0.278521, "from_low_reference": 0.236339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1546.617643, "fair_value_reference": 1807.049006, 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1421.437345, 1438.979976, 1425.018027, 1471.86993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1479.98999, "volume": 29, "typical_volume": 293.0, "trend": 1562.957251, "fair_value": 1815.704852, "relative_strength": -11.811514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.821829, "energy": 22.101191, "activity_lines": [ 1440.039339, 1444.636552, 1431.108402, 1465.667637 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1508.0, "volume": 31, "typical_volume": 293.95, "trend": 1546.617643, "fair_value": 1807.049006, "relative_strength": -9.690919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.96161, "energy": 4.793313, "activity_lines": [ 1463.312671, 1453.307824, 1440.198146, 1462.122008 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }