{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e175ac69-3ac6-4ab1-abca-bb31e89a943d", "symbol": "ADN", "name": "First Sponsor Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 82.589, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.455, "architecture_energy": 25.583, "architecture_maturity": 10.618, "architecture_confidence": 39.213, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.74, "rotation_up": 22.54, "upward_expansion": 22.76, "deceleration": 58.34, "rotation_down": 55.75, "downward_expansion": 38.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.990667, 1.001091, 1.006293, 1.002908 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.0, "trend_reference": 0.998681, "distance_from_trend": 0.00132, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.006634, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.00659, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.639341, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.01682, "excess_performance": -0.138015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00132, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005636, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.00659, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023339, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098615, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01682, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.195946, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1100, "relative_activity": 0.069226, "balance": 0.195946, "dry_up": 1.636249, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022692, "annualized_volatility": 0.148983, "from_high_reference": -0.029126, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.998681, "fair_value_reference": 1.006634, "structural_low": 0.9, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.0172, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.058333, "worst_return": -0.02439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04878, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055642, "worst_return": -0.006551, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029512, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.053992, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.046302, "worst_return": -0.013964, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009346, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028302, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.000775, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057694, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029126, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009709, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052632, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.06379, "volume": 6500, "typical_volume": 12915.0, "trend": 1.095058, "fair_value": 1.100437, "relative_strength": -0.044993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.340646, 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"volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 11965.0, "trend": 1.000531, "fair_value": 1.007885, "relative_strength": -15.005816, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.047374, "energy": 17.06589, "activity_lines": [ 1.012667, 1.014545, 1.011842, 1.006109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.95, "volume": 101600, "typical_volume": 17045.0, "trend": 0.999094, "fair_value": 1.007099, "relative_strength": -19.315101, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.119846, "energy": 33.89189, "activity_lines": [ 0.991333, 1.002727, 1.006584, 1.002849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.0, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 15890.0, "trend": 0.998681, "fair_value": 1.006634, "relative_strength": -15.639341, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.455163, "energy": 25.583034, "activity_lines": [ 0.990667, 1.001091, 1.006293, 1.002908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }