{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e175eb21-f923-4455-b483-ce400a4f3348", "symbol": "NEXI", "name": "Nexi S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 69.206, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.97, "architecture_energy": 87.162, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.967, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.55, "rotation_up": 82.91, "upward_expansion": 98.64, "deceleration": 39.23, "rotation_down": 9.66, "downward_expansion": 20.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.141533, 3.963818, 3.756719, 3.578226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.255, "trend_reference": 3.397799, "distance_from_trend": 0.252281, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.673351, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.089518, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.428781, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.333748, "excess_performance": 0.162856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.252281, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010635, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.089518, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13033, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024288, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137482, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.333748, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.683067, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53768535, "relative_activity": 0.917965, "balance": 1.683067, "dry_up": 0.994421, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064733, "annualized_volatility": 0.489772, "from_high_reference": -0.189006, "from_low_reference": 0.752089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.397799, "fair_value_reference": 4.673351, "structural_low": 2.428529, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.024971, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.018232, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.078854, "worst_return": -0.161602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.119898, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.161457, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.115471, "worst_return": -0.124326, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.274573, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.376197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.242718, "worst_return": -0.306427, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 3.378296, "fair_value": 4.685625, "relative_strength": -1.508039, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.98159, "energy": 87.774829, "activity_lines": [ 4.054733, 3.867655, 3.684558, 3.521664 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.255, "volume": 53768535, "typical_volume": 58573590.75, "trend": 3.397799, "fair_value": 4.673351, "relative_strength": -2.428781, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.9696, "energy": 87.162204, "activity_lines": [ 4.141533, 3.963818, 3.756719, 3.578226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }