{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e180ac34-7161-427d-9e93-716f453c0ab8", "symbol": "ONLN", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ONLINE RETAIL ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.073, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.93, "architecture_energy": 65.429, "architecture_maturity": 28.57, "architecture_confidence": 66.151, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.1, "rotation_up": 71.28, "upward_expansion": 86.22, "deceleration": 45.5, "rotation_down": 11.92, "downward_expansion": 15.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.753367, 57.44183, 57.090806, 56.688692 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 61.3141, "trend_reference": 56.660891, "distance_from_trend": 0.082124, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.483854, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319041, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.551593, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.087529, "excess_performance": -0.038096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082124, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01749, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319041, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 9.1e-05, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017833, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087529, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.427612, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26322, "relative_activity": 0.734796, "balance": 1.427612, "dry_up": 1.114993, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042798, "annualized_volatility": 0.283113, "from_high_reference": -0.039865, "from_low_reference": 0.20531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.660891, "fair_value_reference": 46.483854, "structural_low": 50.87, "invalidation": "A decisive 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38.035026, "activity_lines": [ 55.031975, 55.598093, 56.100422, 56.288266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 57.38, "volume": 43140, "typical_volume": 36985.5, "trend": 56.951908, "fair_value": 45.883258, "relative_strength": -10.195098, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.247263, "energy": 13.36081, "activity_lines": [ 55.881699, 55.784052, 56.249707, 56.309966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.57, "volume": 46673, "typical_volume": 36500.35, "trend": 56.885829, "fair_value": 46.031972, "relative_strength": -8.308826, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.344835, "energy": 7.831764, "activity_lines": [ 56.592967, 56.052118, 56.406282, 56.349842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.75, "volume": 54823, "typical_volume": 36212.9, "trend": 56.710641, "fair_value": 46.155828, "relative_strength": -12.024488, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.594783, "energy": 16.456403, "activity_lines": [ 56.146447, 55.827447, 56.285048, 56.212047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.49, "volume": 31948, "typical_volume": 36474.65, "trend": 56.705468, "fair_value": 46.311462, "relative_strength": -5.302176, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.467373, "energy": 23.606317, "activity_lines": [ 57.318747, 56.489169, 56.615629, 56.391361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.3141, "volume": 26322, "typical_volume": 35822.2, "trend": 56.660891, "fair_value": 46.483854, "relative_strength": -5.551593, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.929577, "energy": 65.428605, "activity_lines": [ 58.753367, 57.44183, 57.090806, 56.688692 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }