{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e184ac55-242b-4c89-8a6f-3e9271f11ce9", "symbol": "LJQQ3", "name": "Lojas Quero-Quero S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.997, "architecture_energy": 85.723, "architecture_maturity": 72.345, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 26.09, "upward_expansion": 18.94, "deceleration": 39.4, "rotation_down": 65.36, "downward_expansion": 94.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.15, 1.204727, 1.342524, 1.510409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.05, "trend_reference": 1.758333, "distance_from_trend": -0.402844, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.041168, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.654738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.639178, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.58, "excess_performance": -0.522952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.402844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153155, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.654738, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111317, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.496392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051969, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.58, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.098776, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12113100, "relative_activity": 1.155363, "balance": 0.098776, "dry_up": 0.940903, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126007, "annualized_volatility": 0.507987, "from_high_reference": -0.634146, "from_low_reference": 0.019417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.758333, "fair_value_reference": 3.041168, "structural_low": 1.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.021002, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.040768, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.410122, "worst_return": -0.328767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.034286, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.078151, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.375721, "worst_return": -0.352174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.037915, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.200149, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.435135, "worst_return": -0.463768, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040678, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11811, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180392, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.255333, 1.293636, 1.471333, 1.644624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.12, "volume": 8334000, "typical_volume": 11992055.0, "trend": 1.831, "fair_value": 3.098998, "relative_strength": -48.765485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.439717, "energy": 82.0851, "activity_lines": [ 1.200667, 1.255091, 1.422952, 1.596452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.25, "volume": 7929800, "typical_volume": 10631700.0, "trend": 1.802667, "fair_value": 3.068863, "relative_strength": -43.056266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.418447, "energy": 69.148359, "activity_lines": [ 1.206667, 1.246545, 1.390762, 1.558968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.05, "volume": 12113100, "typical_volume": 10484240.0, "trend": 1.758333, "fair_value": 3.041168, "relative_strength": -49.639178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.996708, "energy": 85.723451, "activity_lines": [ 1.15, 1.204727, 1.342524, 1.510409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }