{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e185ca87-939b-428d-b970-b822e168f052", "symbol": "ISPR", "name": "Ispire Technology Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.915, "architecture_energy": 16.692, "architecture_maturity": 67.597, "architecture_confidence": 76.246, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.83, "rotation_up": 21.57, "upward_expansion": 12.08, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 36.29, "downward_expansion": 62.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.608667, 1.592182, 1.628167, 1.729892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.71, "trend_reference": 1.992667, "distance_from_trend": -0.141853, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.18516, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.670213, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.010946, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.492582, "excess_performance": -0.680035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141853, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118094, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.670213, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028514, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.340109, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081959, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.492582, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.957774, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 207213, "relative_activity": 0.374286, "balance": 0.957774, "dry_up": 0.502086, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.278866, "annualized_volatility": 1.193544, "from_high_reference": -0.55814, "from_low_reference": 0.693069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.992667, "fair_value_reference": 5.18516, "structural_low": 1.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.080169, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": -0.049783, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.33945, "worst_return": -0.210069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.280702, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.332609, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.303797, "worst_return": -0.363208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.192593, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.389778, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.172018, "worst_return": -0.565217, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.182456, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.272446, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.311983, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034091, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.88, "volume": 233976, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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29.957403, "activity_lines": [ 1.596, 1.635091, 1.659, 1.825591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.55, "volume": 233202, "typical_volume": 668775.95, "trend": 2.065667, "fair_value": 5.28641, "relative_strength": -38.289756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.372661, "energy": 28.711993, "activity_lines": [ 1.573333, 1.613182, 1.643714, 1.789527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.45, "volume": 89781, "typical_volume": 636374.5, "trend": 2.018667, "fair_value": 5.236635, "relative_strength": -41.792559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.670556, "energy": 25.839073, "activity_lines": [ 1.546, 1.575818, 1.623048, 1.749806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.71, "volume": 207213, "typical_volume": 553621.75, "trend": 1.992667, "fair_value": 5.18516, "relative_strength": -34.010946, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.914692, "energy": 16.691934, "activity_lines": [ 1.608667, 1.592182, 1.628167, 1.729892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }