{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e18b84a2-bec9-482c-b1c5-5194aba767dc", "symbol": "TCH-F99", "name": "Tachlit Indices Mutual Fund Management Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (60) Short Leveraged*2 TA 35 Monthly", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.617, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 10.737, "architecture_energy": 9.737, "architecture_maturity": 39.302, "architecture_confidence": 54.372, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.71, "rotation_up": 31.17, "upward_expansion": 35.57, "deceleration": 63.87, "rotation_down": 32.75, "downward_expansion": 21.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.4058, 0.408255, 0.39551, 0.392037 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.406, "trend_reference": 0.394033, "distance_from_trend": 0.03037, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.239814, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.672532, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.691148, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.046948, "excess_performance": -0.075849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03037, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121311, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.672532, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076483, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.306911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.300812, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.046948, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.328322, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 900455, "relative_activity": 0.209639, "balance": 1.328322, "dry_up": 0.548241, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07086, "annualized_volatility": 0.4324, "from_high_reference": -0.522914, "from_low_reference": 0.24159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.394033, "fair_value_reference": 1.239814, "structural_low": 0.327, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.013823, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.058645, "worst_return": -0.097421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.19363, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.282584, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.051568, "worst_return": -0.195787, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.044489, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04392, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040846, "worst_return": -0.242049, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.11198, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.193175, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101112, "worst_return": -0.325072, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-11-04", "end": "2022-12-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096844, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-12-23", "end": "2023-01-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002403, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-01-13", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03575, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-07-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11235, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.151281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08093, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008656, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.797224, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020785, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016949, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.1, "volume": 687902, "typical_volume": 1268523.75, "trend": 2.1399, "fair_value": 2.476308, "relative_strength": 2.995635, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.826455, "energy": 38.673426, 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"activity_lines": [ 0.417267, 0.401691, 0.388019, 0.391475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.413, "volume": 5407525, "typical_volume": 7658157.55, "trend": 0.404667, "fair_value": 1.270936, "relative_strength": -33.62357, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.945247, "energy": 52.501127, "activity_lines": [ 0.417933, 0.406145, 0.39079, 0.391772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.389, "volume": 719613, "typical_volume": 6121653.85, "trend": 0.399933, "fair_value": 1.26041, "relative_strength": -37.846204, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.304315, "energy": 22.533555, "activity_lines": [ 0.408267, 0.405036, 0.391257, 0.390761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.41, "volume": 2391774, "typical_volume": 4744692.4, "trend": 0.3963, "fair_value": 1.249859, "relative_strength": -31.410256, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.670139, "energy": 15.808595, "activity_lines": [ 0.406933, 0.407364, 0.393605, 0.391411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.406, "volume": 900455, "typical_volume": 4295269.75, "trend": 0.394033, "fair_value": 1.239814, "relative_strength": -30.691148, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.736779, "energy": 9.737391, "activity_lines": [ 0.4058, 0.408255, 0.39551, 0.392037 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }