{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e191d251-2591-43a2-adbc-61a0f3269b19", "symbol": "XCV", "name": "iShares Canadian Value Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.148, "architecture_energy": 67.861, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.422, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.87, "rotation_up": 63.18, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.51, "rotation_down": 25.71, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.676667, 64.127845, 62.39924, 60.653683 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 63.98, "trend_reference": 58.286794, "distance_from_trend": 0.097676, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.094265, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.519922, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.853435, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.199525, "excess_performance": 0.079104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097676, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074991, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.519922, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044682, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048534, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002854, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.199525, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.335584, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95400, "relative_activity": 1.788694, "balance": 1.335584, "dry_up": 1.23043, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018509, "annualized_volatility": 0.100236, "from_high_reference": -0.023206, "from_low_reference": 0.457159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.286794, "fair_value_reference": 42.094265, "structural_low": 53.337763, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.017774, "positive_rate": 0.697674, "directional_follow_through": 0.697674, "median_excess_return": 0.007768, "regime_survival": 0.860465, "best_return": 0.062368, "worst_return": -0.081065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.067074, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.018133, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.14609, "worst_return": -0.010343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.139442, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.029261, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.223448, "worst_return": -0.095575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 65.209999, "volume": 56700, "typical_volume": 48645.0, "trend": 57.421801, "fair_value": 41.659496, "relative_strength": 10.454009, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.736615, "energy": 82.221613, "activity_lines": [ 64.546666, 63.538637, 61.518023, 59.770108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.010002, "volume": 49200, "typical_volume": 49730.0, "trend": 57.872789, "fair_value": 41.880841, "relative_strength": 10.252159, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.166127, "energy": 71.883323, "activity_lines": [ 64.856667, 63.961987, 62.032703, 60.259669 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.98, "volume": 95400, "typical_volume": 53335.0, "trend": 58.286794, "fair_value": 42.094265, "relative_strength": 4.853435, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.147927, "energy": 67.860762, "activity_lines": [ 64.676667, 64.127845, 62.39924, 60.653683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }