{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1977b3d-9ea6-4685-8868-f93f5ab35889", "symbol": "AJASE", "name": "BNP PARIBAS Easy ICAV - BNP Paribas Easy ESG Enhanced Japan UCITS ETF UCITS ETF EUR CAPITALISATION", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.578, "architecture_energy": 42.41, "architecture_maturity": 61.573, "architecture_confidence": 85.118, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.61, "rotation_up": 42.68, "upward_expansion": 67.64, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 27.16, "downward_expansion": 17.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.660193, 13.666905, 13.401882, 13.107017 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.0178, "trend_reference": 12.76767, "distance_from_trend": 0.097914, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.10929, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261809, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.70128, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.133182, "excess_performance": 0.079871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097914, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061692, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063714, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.087013, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046077, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133182, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.904661, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100432, "relative_activity": 0.807393, "balance": 1.904661, "dry_up": 1.353651, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030532, "annualized_volatility": 0.201979, "from_high_reference": -0.020775, "from_low_reference": 0.343151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.76767, "fair_value_reference": 11.10929, "structural_low": 11.1978, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045833, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042093, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-27", "close": 10.2833, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.940223, "energy": 88.420296, "activity_lines": [ 13.818993, 13.593722, 13.118842, 12.855377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.3224, "volume": 196871, "typical_volume": 127962.0, "trend": 12.560327, "fair_value": 11.028871, "relative_strength": 9.107134, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.66775, "energy": 60.774738, "activity_lines": [ 13.67898, 13.580522, 13.173135, 12.908731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.5342, "volume": 153749, "typical_volume": 129043.65, "trend": 12.634483, "fair_value": 11.054968, "relative_strength": 9.939455, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.300684, "energy": 53.202914, "activity_lines": [ 13.608413, 13.597675, 13.245375, 12.971561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.4157, "volume": 222473, "typical_volume": 134476.25, "trend": 12.69945, "fair_value": 11.079305, "relative_strength": 6.886053, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.041776, "energy": 37.313397, "activity_lines": [ 13.524547, 13.581064, 13.298632, 13.021962 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.0178, "volume": 100432, "typical_volume": 124390.45, "trend": 12.76767, "fair_value": 11.10929, "relative_strength": 8.70128, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.577749, "energy": 42.410185, "activity_lines": [ 13.660193, 13.666905, 13.401882, 13.107017 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }