{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e19959f7-2584-476b-9383-1d49594a2063", "symbol": "6142", "name": "Cameo Communications, Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 72.383, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.938, "architecture_energy": 6.989, "architecture_maturity": 23.267, "architecture_confidence": 42.06, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.68, "rotation_up": 24.18, "upward_expansion": 23.4, "deceleration": 63.01, "rotation_down": 34.38, "downward_expansion": 26.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.452, 9.632727, 9.328571, 9.329054 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.3, "trend_reference": 9.416333, "distance_from_trend": -0.012354, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.074758, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076901, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.358739, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.05102, "excess_performance": -0.492392, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0103, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076901, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146247, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.313587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123633, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05102, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.852975, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2312271, "relative_activity": 0.492016, "balance": 0.852975, "dry_up": 0.968871, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113978, "annualized_volatility": 0.452338, "from_high_reference": -0.228216, "from_low_reference": 0.196911 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.416333, "fair_value_reference": 10.074758, "structural_low": 7.77, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.009524, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.03287, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.192661, "worst_return": -0.23125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.098196, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.077368, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.144444, "worst_return": -0.201323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.026201, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.19858, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.472222, "worst_return": -0.237736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023154, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.168007, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.13864, "worst_return": -0.369811, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070539, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039823, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13617, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.208134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007014, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112108, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092742, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025779, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138122, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075742, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023109, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 10.395439, "volume": 5859988, "typical_volume": 10371589.7, "trend": 12.177047, "fair_value": 10.846928, "relative_strength": -13.266579, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", 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"fair_value": 10.133551, "relative_strength": -28.895888, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.264732, "energy": 34.371362, "activity_lines": [ 9.978, 9.500909, 9.227952, 9.30086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.73, "volume": 5790656, "typical_volume": 4583006.4, "trend": 9.386333, "fair_value": 10.117341, "relative_strength": -27.176612, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.550571, "energy": 32.550616, "activity_lines": [ 9.934, 9.615455, 9.272476, 9.32372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.45, "volume": 7295635, "typical_volume": 4851748.55, "trend": 9.393, "fair_value": 10.102794, "relative_strength": -27.586487, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.228772, "energy": 19.551985, "activity_lines": [ 9.788667, 9.648182, 9.291524, 9.327828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.52, "volume": 2814611, "typical_volume": 4736054.2, "trend": 9.408, "fair_value": 10.089009, "relative_strength": -28.07202, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.159865, "energy": 3.778325, "activity_lines": [ 9.641333, 9.671818, 9.318667, 9.336022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 9.3, "volume": 2312271, "typical_volume": 4699584.85, "trend": 9.416333, "fair_value": 10.074758, "relative_strength": -31.358739, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.937903, "energy": 6.988673, "activity_lines": [ 9.452, 9.632727, 9.328571, 9.329054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }