{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e199bebc-cfc9-45a9-a856-b9e2308cd7a4", "symbol": "WENT", "name": "WisdomTree Energy Transition Metals ETC", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.346, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.637, "architecture_energy": 11.347, "architecture_maturity": 14.711, "architecture_confidence": 56.429, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.24, "rotation_up": 23.22, "upward_expansion": 16.15, "deceleration": 60.47, "rotation_down": 43.72, "downward_expansion": 38.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.740332, 23.784545, 24.052809, 23.973333 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.059999, "trend_reference": 23.899, "distance_from_trend": 0.006737, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.062513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.262163, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.821176, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007835, "excess_performance": -0.187728, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006737, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053756, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.262163, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039745, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126341, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007835, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.003256, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7379, "relative_activity": 0.276828, "balance": 1.003256, "dry_up": 0.303783, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038973, "annualized_volatility": 0.214714, "from_high_reference": -0.140714, "from_low_reference": 0.414462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.899, "fair_value_reference": 19.062513, "structural_low": 21.629999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.016889, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026081, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.11019, "worst_return": -0.091699, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.006175, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047489, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033156, "worst_return": -0.020807, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.036465, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.066838, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.036465, "worst_return": -0.036465, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 23.469999, "volume": 1863, "typical_volume": 27957.95, "trend": 23.579667, "fair_value": 18.90209, "relative_strength": -6.132798, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.091263, "energy": 18.540947, "activity_lines": [ 23.773, 24.233545, 24.163857, 23.981989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.254999, "volume": 3366, "typical_volume": 27463.65, "trend": 23.674667, "fair_value": 18.939776, "relative_strength": -5.660644, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.614206, "energy": 27.001832, "activity_lines": [ 23.516, 24.018273, 24.094976, 23.961043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.754999, "volume": 5967, "typical_volume": 26682.9, "trend": 23.76, "fair_value": 18.981808, "relative_strength": -3.498954, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.403247, "energy": 25.289609, "activity_lines": [ 23.523666, 23.908727, 24.072667, 23.966226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.639999, "volume": 15678, "typical_volume": 26950.25, "trend": 23.829833, "fair_value": 19.020385, "relative_strength": -4.6624, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.473194, "energy": 28.955757, "activity_lines": [ 23.543332, 23.796909, 24.042619, 23.958484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.059999, "volume": 7379, "typical_volume": 26655.55, "trend": 23.899, "fair_value": 19.062513, "relative_strength": -5.821176, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.636615, "energy": 11.346661, "activity_lines": [ 23.740332, 23.784545, 24.052809, 23.973333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }