{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e19b284a-7576-4888-9963-a3cde3594442", "symbol": "WAY", "name": "Waystar Holding Corp. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.606, "architecture_energy": 14.428, "architecture_maturity": 12.208, "architecture_confidence": 42.227, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.91, "rotation_up": 45.25, "upward_expansion": 39.63, "deceleration": 30.67, "rotation_down": 18.66, "downward_expansion": 43.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.672667, 22.048182, 21.446667, 21.947204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.23, "trend_reference": 23.035, "distance_from_trend": 0.051878, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.939693, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216864, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.684415, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002881, "excess_performance": -0.190334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051878, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158077, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216864, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120055, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196481, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002881, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.263964, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17998458, "relative_activity": 1.38897, "balance": 1.263964, "dry_up": 1.142174, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111904, "annualized_volatility": 0.642656, "from_high_reference": -0.415722, "from_low_reference": 0.403824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.035, "fair_value_reference": 30.939693, "structural_low": 17.26, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.310567, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.147797, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-07", "close": 20.7, "volume": 15748217, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-14", "close": 22.0, "volume": 14099905, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.381017, "energy": 18.054344, "activity_lines": [ 22.382667, 21.369636, 21.264143, 22.060538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.11, "volume": 18849914, "typical_volume": 12664677.1, "trend": 23.377333, "fair_value": 30.999071, "relative_strength": -33.62335, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.329018, "energy": 13.120124, "activity_lines": [ 22.048, 21.439273, 21.199571, 21.892194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.23, "volume": 17998458, "typical_volume": 12958134.4, "trend": 23.035, "fair_value": 30.939693, "relative_strength": -26.684415, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.606415, "energy": 14.42766, "activity_lines": [ 22.672667, 22.048182, 21.446667, 21.947204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }