{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e19eb6d0-eca9-4d03-91ab-3a3df19e76ca", "symbol": "QED", "name": "Quadrise Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.375, "architecture_energy": 81.591, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.172, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 11.84, "upward_expansion": 20.27, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 74.5, "downward_expansion": 95.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.01022, 0.01235, 0.016659, 0.018543 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0105, "trend_reference": 0.020523, "distance_from_trend": -0.488371, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.026131, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.598176, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -62.514695, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.493976, "excess_performance": -0.545211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.488371, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190832, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.598176, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.558887, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.625147, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.357304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.493976, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.297942, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15200300, "relative_activity": 0.68945, "balance": 0.297942, "dry_up": 0.735698, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.407912, "annualized_volatility": 1.243706, "from_high_reference": -0.79, "from_low_reference": 0.153846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.020523, "fair_value_reference": 0.026131, "structural_low": 0.0091, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.009174, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": -0.023919, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.913043, "worst_return": -0.491094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.064471, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.051653, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.848306, "worst_return": -0.308333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.204203, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.281077, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.756098, "worst_return": -0.493976, "sufficient": true }, 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"typical_volume": 23800341.75, "trend": 0.021684, "fair_value": 0.026153, "relative_strength": -65.096985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.101926, "energy": 81.717166, "activity_lines": [ 0.011673, 0.014441, 0.018659, 0.019988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0099, "volume": 6950394, "typical_volume": 23581684.15, "trend": 0.021106, "fair_value": 0.026141, "relative_strength": -65.158281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.785799, "energy": 84.673817, "activity_lines": [ 0.01056, 0.013239, 0.017607, 0.019227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0105, "volume": 15200300, "typical_volume": 22047003.9, "trend": 0.020523, "fair_value": 0.026131, "relative_strength": -62.514695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.37503, "energy": 81.590726, "activity_lines": [ 0.01022, 0.01235, 0.016659, 0.018543 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }