{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e19f89ce-3846-45af-a849-259b96bac573", "symbol": "IDA", "name": "IDACORP Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.353, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.746, "architecture_energy": 13.581, "architecture_maturity": 30.197, "architecture_confidence": 81.553, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.37, "rotation_up": 19.83, "upward_expansion": 52.93, "deceleration": 90.92, "rotation_down": 36.31, "downward_expansion": 21.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 144.380791, 146.275171, 145.399547, 144.37167 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 141.84, "trend_reference": 142.306719, "distance_from_trend": -0.00328, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 110.788053, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280282, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.71889, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.054465, "excess_performance": -0.07116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049114, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280282, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070892, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054465, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.834298, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2424480, "relative_activity": 0.927028, "balance": 0.834298, "dry_up": 0.920323, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045715, "annualized_volatility": 0.200439, "from_high_reference": -0.078746, "from_low_reference": 0.182436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 142.306719, "fair_value_reference": 110.788053, "structural_low": 133.499905, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007725, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.001206, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.059135, "worst_return": -0.102297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026976, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.017465, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.115383, "worst_return": -0.068906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01986, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.069644, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124096, "worst_return": -0.018922, "sufficient": 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2569939.5, "trend": 140.509359, "fair_value": 109.779233, "relative_strength": 1.055778, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.801357, "energy": 66.333073, "activity_lines": [ 149.798581, 147.346367, 145.544981, 143.856713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 147.662828, "volume": 2188557, "typical_volume": 2582607.15, "trend": 141.25247, "fair_value": 110.126335, "relative_strength": 1.450529, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.460687, "energy": 46.865631, "activity_lines": [ 149.25897, 147.77673, 145.87942, 144.318227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 142.037388, "volume": 2642423, "typical_volume": 2622338.95, "trend": 141.796545, "fair_value": 110.455409, "relative_strength": -3.407991, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.289453, "energy": 14.571326, "activity_lines": [ 146.491358, 147.044235, 145.650089, 144.368867 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 141.84, "volume": 2424480, "typical_volume": 2615326.7, "trend": 142.306719, "fair_value": 110.788053, "relative_strength": -6.71889, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.745852, "energy": 13.580533, "activity_lines": [ 144.380791, 146.275171, 145.399547, 144.37167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }