{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1a31213-b34a-4633-9a25-b2c163d878a6", "symbol": "REGENCERAM", "name": "Regency Ceramics Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.51, "architecture_energy": 76.29, "architecture_maturity": 33.465, "architecture_confidence": 84.567, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.5, "rotation_up": 9.54, "upward_expansion": 16.86, "deceleration": 37.16, "rotation_down": 79.55, "downward_expansion": 94.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.002, 36.347454, 38.862095, 40.110301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 32.650002, "trend_reference": 41.768333, "distance_from_trend": -0.218307, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.765449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.28658, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.46732, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.303541, "excess_performance": -0.259832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.218307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065062, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.28658, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288789, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277385, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.303541, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.029804, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12055, "relative_activity": 0.831835, "balance": 0.029804, "dry_up": 2.117385, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140676, "annualized_volatility": 0.308308, "from_high_reference": -0.406256, "from_low_reference": 0.088333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.768333, "fair_value_reference": 45.765449, "structural_low": 30.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.020694, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059981, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.443299, "worst_return": -0.249459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.142534, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.089122, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.396296, "worst_return": -0.285762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.352941, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.248308, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.699145, "worst_return": -0.159367, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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42.037571, 42.645742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.040001, "volume": 6713, "typical_volume": 12030.75, "trend": 43.401667, "fair_value": 45.549551, "relative_strength": -10.696368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.402618, "energy": 29.154716, "activity_lines": [ 40.248, 40.537455, 41.719571, 42.349505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.119999, "volume": 23626, "typical_volume": 12559.7, "trend": 43.068667, "fair_value": 45.606731, "relative_strength": -15.223308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.330147, "energy": 39.155926, "activity_lines": [ 39.187333, 39.801454, 41.236809, 41.944236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.939999, "volume": 71378, "typical_volume": 15944.6, "trend": 42.669666, "fair_value": 45.670449, "relative_strength": -20.113622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.226949, "energy": 61.758488, "activity_lines": [ 37.22, 38.629272, 40.474428, 41.35529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.919998, "volume": 15682, "typical_volume": 15866.7, "trend": 42.197666, "fair_value": 45.713205, "relative_strength": -23.876876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.334869, "energy": 71.065714, "activity_lines": [ 35.353332, 37.441636, 39.657666, 40.726279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.650002, "volume": 12055, "typical_volume": 14492.05, "trend": 41.768333, "fair_value": 45.765449, "relative_strength": -24.46732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.510175, "energy": 76.289925, "activity_lines": [ 34.002, 36.347454, 38.862095, 40.110301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }