{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e1a324fd-43d7-4458-af8b-4cc367914b9f",
    "symbol": "ASYS",
    "name": "Amtech Systems Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -20.045,
    "architecture_energy": 27.436,
    "architecture_maturity": 36.735,
    "architecture_confidence": 49.05,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.41,
        "rotation_up": 14.79,
        "upward_expansion": 16.22,
        "deceleration": 59.81,
        "rotation_down": 61.2,
        "downward_expansion": 43.55
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        15.912,
        17.344,
        18.454381,
        17.592301
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 15.53,
    "trend_reference": 16.454667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.056195,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 8.087083,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.920346,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 5.055438,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.396583,
    "excess_performance": 0.209129,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.056195,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.203589,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.920346,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -1.026797,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050554,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.872925,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.396583,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.28746,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2006662,
      "relative_activity": 1.138118,
      "balance": 0.28746,
      "dry_up": 1.033013,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 8
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.259426,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.776041,
      "from_high_reference": -0.395896,
      "from_low_reference": 2.39083
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 16.454667,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.087083,
      "structural_low": 10.5111,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.181818,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.168556,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.639301,
        "worst_return": -0.167738,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.315284,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.313762,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.629885,
        "worst_return": -0.02852,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.089713,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.048928,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.880697,
        "worst_return": -0.099822,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.060389,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.085809,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.066388,
        "worst_return": -0.187166,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.188948,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.062107,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.10509,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-12-06",
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        "return": 0.065574,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.051237,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.11619,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.044643,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.388158,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
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        "return": 0.47185,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2026-02-20",
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      {
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 1652740.15,
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        "fair_value": 7.983666,
        "relative_strength": 22.078719,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 21.944658,
        "energy": 17.542822,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 1492821,
        "typical_volume": 1681222.95,
        "trend": 16.321333,
        "fair_value": 8.015589,
        "relative_strength": 16.550411,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 3.420167,
        "energy": 13.708059,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.284,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 15.34,
        "volume": 1862756,
        "typical_volume": 1739635.8,
        "trend": 16.401,
        "fair_value": 8.044499,
        "relative_strength": 10.405951,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -1.300672,
        "energy": 16.166818,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.426,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 15.53,
        "volume": 2006662,
        "typical_volume": 1763139.8,
        "trend": 16.454667,
        "fair_value": 8.087083,
        "relative_strength": 5.055438,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -20.044874,
        "energy": 27.435741,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.912,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}