{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1a355d7-c463-49fe-ac2f-e06b74b4979e", "symbol": "DXEU", "name": "Ailis D-X MSCI Europe Screened UCITS ETF X EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.299, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.662, "architecture_energy": 71.641, "architecture_maturity": 42.154, "architecture_confidence": 76.245, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.78, "rotation_up": 61.48, "upward_expansion": 86.69, "deceleration": 53.98, "rotation_down": 24.87, "downward_expansion": 13.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.468533, 6.432509, 6.315571, 6.213968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.579, "trend_reference": 6.1118, "distance_from_trend": 0.076442, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.535325, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188548, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.989233, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093584, "excess_performance": -0.077308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076442, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039481, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188548, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075962, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039892, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020084, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093584, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.641321, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102033, "relative_activity": 0.425471, "balance": 0.641321, "dry_up": 0.914146, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018181, "annualized_volatility": 0.161971, "from_high_reference": -0.003182, "from_low_reference": 0.238983 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.1118, "fair_value_reference": 5.535325, "structural_low": 5.451, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027732, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001496, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.053644, "worst_return": -0.010735, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.092494, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.002679, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.092494, "worst_return": 0.092494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.990308, "energy": 72.549562, "activity_lines": [ 6.4026, 6.368564, 6.241429, 6.158058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.451, "volume": 95207, "typical_volume": 246280.4, "trend": 6.091933, "fair_value": 5.524453, "relative_strength": -3.156069, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.648393, "energy": 58.993725, "activity_lines": [ 6.417733, 6.391182, 6.273957, 6.182544 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.579, "volume": 102033, "typical_volume": 239812.05, "trend": 6.1118, "fair_value": 5.535325, "relative_strength": -3.989233, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.66152, "energy": 71.640543, "activity_lines": [ 6.468533, 6.432509, 6.315571, 6.213968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }