{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1ad7110-e827-4b7d-85d2-af1fb67d40eb", "symbol": "SSTY", "name": "Safestay plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.879, "architecture_energy": 27.71, "architecture_maturity": 41.066, "architecture_confidence": 62.128, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.44, "rotation_up": 10.81, "upward_expansion": 9.35, "deceleration": 63.78, "rotation_down": 61.66, "downward_expansion": 68.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.138267, 0.146073, 0.142543, 0.144191 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.13, "trend_reference": 0.148483, "distance_from_trend": -0.124481, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.2085, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.376499, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.438772, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.223881, "excess_performance": -0.275116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06907, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.376499, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006159, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045272, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223881, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.76235, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88180, "relative_activity": 0.342383, "balance": 1.76235, "dry_up": 1.444639, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.321893, "annualized_volatility": 1.44135, "from_high_reference": -0.628571, "from_low_reference": 0.262136 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.148483, "fair_value_reference": 0.2085, "structural_low": 0.103, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.009331, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.290323, "worst_return": -0.155556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.023256, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035915, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.709677, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021983, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026552, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.677419, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.095, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.147055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.793103, "worst_return": -0.372093, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.261905, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113208, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12766, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.162791, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061224, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085106, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.511111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.245, "volume": 135492, "typical_volume": 171481.95, "trend": 0.241933, "fair_value": 0.187022, "relative_strength": 24.086652, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.793056, "energy": 9.602444, "activity_lines": [ 0.25, 0.252636, 0.258976, 0.254501 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.245, "volume": 228206, "typical_volume": 179316.65, "trend": 0.244933, "fair_value": 0.187792, "relative_strength": 21.778048, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.481372, "energy": 15.662953, "activity_lines": [ 0.246333, 0.250909, 0.257643, 0.254699 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 0.24, "volume": 344943, "typical_volume": 194075.75, "trend": 0.247767, "fair_value": 0.188497, "relative_strength": 16.449344, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.067432, "energy": 27.999551, "activity_lines": [ 0.243333, 0.248727, 0.255762, 0.254381 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 0.24, "volume": 161963, "typical_volume": 187054.7, "trend": 0.2491, "fair_value": 0.189202, "relative_strength": 15.40585, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", 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1414558, "typical_volume": 684966.95, "trend": 0.153667, "fair_value": 0.211821, "relative_strength": 41.293678, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.426518, "energy": 44.949411, "activity_lines": [ 0.18, 0.158091, 0.148607, 0.149995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.132, "volume": 1167200, "typical_volume": 242825.85, "trend": 0.1524, "fair_value": 0.210872, "relative_strength": -30.508911, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.279132, "energy": 17.812817, "activity_lines": [ 0.17, 0.155636, 0.147167, 0.148597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 97381, "typical_volume": 246603.0, "trend": 0.15115, "fair_value": 0.210038, "relative_strength": -31.463198, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.286253, "energy": 13.62101, "activity_lines": [ 0.159533, 0.152873, 0.145657, 0.147152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.125, "volume": 135494, "typical_volume": 253142.3, "trend": 0.149733, "fair_value": 0.209205, "relative_strength": -33.90178, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.322745, "energy": 20.685367, "activity_lines": [ 0.147733, 0.149018, 0.14379, 0.145465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.13, "volume": 88180, "typical_volume": 257547.95, "trend": 0.148483, "fair_value": 0.2085, "relative_strength": -30.438772, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.879378, "energy": 27.709659, "activity_lines": [ 0.138267, 0.146073, 0.142543, 0.144191 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }