{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1afcc5f-2152-4d6a-a71e-c532d397c3a9", "symbol": "QQQM", "name": "INVESCO NASDAQ 100 ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.662, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.158, "architecture_energy": 24.493, "architecture_maturity": 65.471, "architecture_confidence": 85.377, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.87, "rotation_up": 29.07, "upward_expansion": 57.46, "deceleration": 88.1, "rotation_down": 28.96, "downward_expansion": 18.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 289.202667, 290.968891, 289.854742, 281.567736 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 297.7, "trend_reference": 271.418383, "distance_from_trend": 0.096831, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 212.927826, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.398126, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.016509, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.187614, "excess_performance": 0.00016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096831, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051324, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.398126, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058781, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000165, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 3.1e-05, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.187614, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.515272, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20502559, "relative_activity": 1.088808, "balance": 1.515272, "dry_up": 0.936121, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04544, "annualized_volatility": 0.212703, "from_high_reference": -0.032981, "from_low_reference": 0.301421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 271.418383, "fair_value_reference": 212.927826, "structural_low": 228.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022795, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 5.7e-05, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.088766, "worst_return": -0.01551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.100365, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000328, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.143516, "worst_return": 0.071473, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.178979, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000311, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.204913, "worst_return": 0.153044, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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288.506, 292.051798, 287.562079, 278.866949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 283.29, "volume": 18670571, "typical_volume": 18668219.25, "trend": 270.083757, "fair_value": 211.968826, "relative_strength": 0.023307, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.709954, "energy": 20.686849, "activity_lines": [ 286.197333, 290.092999, 288.115483, 279.786042 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 297.7, "volume": 20502559, "typical_volume": 18830277.15, "trend": 271.418383, "fair_value": 212.927826, "relative_strength": 0.016509, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.158143, "energy": 24.492578, "activity_lines": [ 289.202667, 290.968891, 289.854742, 281.567736 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }