{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1afd7c9-391d-4ab2-a911-b242aeabb311", "symbol": "T1SC34", "name": "Tractor Supply Company", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.604, "architecture_energy": 65.082, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.796, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.72, "rotation_up": 29.98, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 49.36, "rotation_down": 51.5, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.656667, 8.736182, 8.928668, 9.863025 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.71, "trend_reference": 11.322539, "distance_from_trend": -0.230738, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.430706, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.396426, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.091269, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.454349, "excess_performance": -0.397301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.230738, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168363, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.396426, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035017, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.390913, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156509, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.454349, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.020761, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88, "relative_activity": 0.097431, "balance": 1.020761, "dry_up": 0.661814, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042556, "annualized_volatility": 0.411808, "from_high_reference": -0.515002, "from_low_reference": 0.070025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.322539, "fair_value_reference": 14.430706, "structural_low": 8.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.002821, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020128, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.13875, "worst_return": -0.315452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017412, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.112516, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.093192, "worst_return": -0.313921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011538, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.08396, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.056649, "worst_return": -0.427858, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-51.841297, "energy": 58.006369, "activity_lines": [ 8.982667, 8.795279, 9.751976, 10.946562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.66, "volume": 3642, "typical_volume": 797.15, "trend": 12.243373, "fair_value": 14.502115, "relative_strength": -45.474746, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.923839, "energy": 57.768824, "activity_lines": [ 8.913333, 8.777541, 9.532543, 10.700013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.66, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 800.0, "trend": 11.983429, "fair_value": 14.486826, "relative_strength": -43.201233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.439692, "energy": 56.74237, "activity_lines": [ 8.837333, 8.775751, 9.341794, 10.468828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.28, "volume": 2235, "typical_volume": 907.7, "trend": 11.738579, "fair_value": 14.467023, "relative_strength": -44.73987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.540364, "energy": 69.860139, "activity_lines": [ 8.641333, 8.69894, 9.143009, 10.229897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.87, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 904.65, "trend": 11.527938, "fair_value": 14.449623, "relative_strength": -41.001626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.37578, "energy": 64.563537, "activity_lines": [ 8.673333, 8.733455, 9.031467, 10.044827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.71, "volume": 88, "typical_volume": 903.2, "trend": 11.322539, "fair_value": 14.430706, "relative_strength": -39.091269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.604207, "energy": 65.081839, "activity_lines": [ 8.656667, 8.736182, 8.928668, 9.863025 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }