{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1b8523c-a744-4898-b288-4972a2769a2a", "symbol": "ELCR", "name": "Amundi MSCI Smart Mobility UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.978, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.483, "architecture_energy": 24.371, "architecture_maturity": 56.034, "architecture_confidence": 77.964, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.67, "rotation_up": 14.2, "upward_expansion": 42.51, "deceleration": 87.4, "rotation_down": 47.93, "downward_expansion": 36.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.942001, 24.536364, 24.783786, 24.351312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.565001, "trend_reference": 23.797166, "distance_from_trend": 0.032266, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.215134, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.215179, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.41831, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.093236, "excess_performance": -0.077656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032266, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040601, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.215179, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054815, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074183, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108192, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093236, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.629778, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49762, "relative_activity": 1.651316, "balance": 0.629778, "dry_up": 2.035408, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04658, "annualized_volatility": 0.237957, "from_high_reference": -0.081854, "from_low_reference": 0.269509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.797166, "fair_value_reference": 20.215134, "structural_low": 21.135, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.034716, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003439, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.12323, "worst_return": -0.053799, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.118357, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.052986, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.118357, "worst_return": 0.118357, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004679, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036671, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057187, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00084, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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"energy": 18.39823, "activity_lines": [ 25.087, 25.412909, 24.925024, 24.34358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.57, "volume": 32861, "typical_volume": 28614.3, "trend": 23.711166, "fair_value": 20.149273, "relative_strength": -8.053534, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.396821, "energy": 18.867216, "activity_lines": [ 24.452, 25.056091, 24.866357, 24.336903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.110001, "volume": 131828, "typical_volume": 30448.1, "trend": 23.7405, "fair_value": 20.175946, "relative_strength": -10.372968, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.722022, "energy": 28.832947, "activity_lines": [ 23.873, 24.642546, 24.758, 24.298118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.565001, "volume": 49762, "typical_volume": 30134.75, "trend": 23.797166, "fair_value": 20.215134, "relative_strength": -7.41831, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.483247, "energy": 24.37139, "activity_lines": [ 23.942001, 24.536364, 24.783786, 24.351312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }