{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1bfd836-f093-4240-80b1-c99d1a1ea0c6", "symbol": "HRL-F65", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4D) EURO STOXX 50", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.771, "architecture_energy": 62.994, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 56.662, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.75, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.31, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.634, 29.14, 723.832857, 1243.503441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 30.13, "trend_reference": 1852.280667, "distance_from_trend": -0.983734, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2410.470641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.9875, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.819048, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989516, "excess_performance": -1.018417, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983734, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.334478, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.9875, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.055502, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.98819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.720921, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989516, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.015045, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 147004, "relative_activity": 1.897576, "balance": 3.015045, "dry_up": 2.258045, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.33095, "annualized_volatility": 6.336523, "from_high_reference": -0.98992, "from_low_reference": 0.103663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1852.280667, "fair_value_reference": 2410.470641, "structural_low": 27.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.004259, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.018236, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.14702, "worst_return": -0.989849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.040252, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.015448, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.223162, "worst_return": -0.989665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.087394, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033851, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.40013, "worst_return": -0.141932, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.0, "volume": 123753, "typical_volume": 66218.6, "trend": 2041.574, "fair_value": 2438.277051, "relative_strength": -98.946343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.622372, "energy": 67.525662, "activity_lines": [ 28.799333, 171.767455, 1014.840048, 1496.964753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.07, "volume": 207640, "typical_volume": 72972.3, "trend": 1947.276333, "fair_value": 2424.469808, "relative_strength": -98.849715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.205979, "energy": 66.857011, "activity_lines": [ 29.27, 76.485273, 862.950429, 1367.190301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.13, "volume": 147004, "typical_volume": 77469.35, "trend": 1852.280667, "fair_value": 2410.470641, "relative_strength": -98.819048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.771415, "energy": 62.994355, "activity_lines": [ 29.634, 29.14, 723.832857, 1243.503441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }