{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1c171f6-b584-4e1f-a648-784dda7e4ed7", "symbol": "ILIT", "name": "ISHARES LITHIUM MINERS AND PRODUCERS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.689, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.717, "architecture_energy": 81.443, "architecture_maturity": 14.174, "architecture_confidence": 85.785, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.34, "rotation_up": 8.7, "upward_expansion": 19.61, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 78.4, "downward_expansion": 95.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.195333, 15.218912, 17.105477, 17.484747 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.05, "trend_reference": 17.751264, "distance_from_trend": -0.152173, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.644293, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19026, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.055169, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09069, "excess_performance": -0.278144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152173, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020385, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.19026, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.596543, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160552, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.584403, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09069, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.439942, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72170, "relative_activity": 0.470154, "balance": 0.439942, "dry_up": 0.44182, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11994, "annualized_volatility": 0.585643, "from_high_reference": -0.366922, "from_low_reference": 0.567934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.751264, "fair_value_reference": 12.644293, "structural_low": 13.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014286, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.024831, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.106918, "worst_return": -0.178971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.020448, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038378, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.278591, "worst_return": -0.237696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.025325, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.103839, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.025325, "worst_return": -0.025325, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-20.764364, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.021923, "energy": 88.383617, "activity_lines": [ 14.080493, 15.521487, 17.398243, 17.664098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.05, "volume": 72170, "typical_volume": 153502.95, "trend": 17.751264, "fair_value": 12.644293, "relative_strength": -16.055169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.716745, "energy": 81.442614, "activity_lines": [ 14.195333, 15.218912, 17.105477, 17.484747 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }