{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e1cebe31-b6b0-4852-a73a-bbb4e25d21b4",
    "symbol": "USTH",
    "name": "Amundi Core Nasdaq-100 Swap UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 80.495,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 43.979,
    "architecture_energy": 29.06,
    "architecture_maturity": 67.994,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.799,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 34.59,
        "rotation_up": 28.03,
        "upward_expansion": 58.2,
        "deceleration": 88.31,
        "rotation_down": 35.41,
        "downward_expansion": 21.87
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        20.270667,
        20.45791,
        20.412724,
        19.856435
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 20.860001,
    "trend_reference": 19.183,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.087421,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 15.392269,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.355226,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.284191,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.179331,
    "excess_performance": 0.008439,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.087421,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048524,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.355226,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.048984,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.032842,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.069926,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.179331,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.302201,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 60446,
      "relative_activity": 0.649176,
      "balance": 2.302201,
      "dry_up": 0.910627,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034678,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.199697,
      "from_high_reference": -0.028412,
      "from_low_reference": 0.277873
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 19.183,
      "fair_value_reference": 15.392269,
      "structural_low": 16.323999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.020508,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007763,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.081903,
        "worst_return": -0.021315,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.059241,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008261,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.140769,
        "worst_return": -0.147222,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.164006,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.02285,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.182085,
        "worst_return": 0.066907,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.230001,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009997,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.281032,
        "worst_return": 0.178971,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.047418,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.01309,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.092215,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.137775,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.065322,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.038545,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002766,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.033986,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02234,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.032735,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047787,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01898,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-08",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.019278,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047925,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 11771.45,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 62054,
        "typical_volume": 92425.7,
        "trend": 18.981467,
        "fair_value": 15.222923,
        "relative_strength": -3.879892,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 45.680454,
        "energy": 38.571029,
        "activity_lines": [
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          20.249295,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 19.906,
        "volume": 54508,
        "typical_volume": 93743.2,
        "trend": 19.038867,
        "fair_value": 15.276128,
        "relative_strength": -4.518707,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.208718,
        "energy": 26.765298,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.338,
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          20.289895,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 19.728001,
        "volume": 162153,
        "typical_volume": 92596.05,
        "trend": 19.0972,
        "fair_value": 15.329462,
        "relative_strength": -5.903501,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.741508,
        "energy": 25.662652,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.085934,
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          20.303115,
          19.742706
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 20.860001,
        "volume": 60446,
        "typical_volume": 93111.95,
        "trend": 19.183,
        "fair_value": 15.392269,
        "relative_strength": -3.284191,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.978875,
        "energy": 29.06042,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.270667,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}