{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1cfab8d-af17-433a-9f15-c0cc41901cff", "symbol": "BMI", "name": "Badger Meter Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.281, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.998, "architecture_energy": 12.048, "architecture_maturity": 24.076, "architecture_confidence": 56.261, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.49, "rotation_up": 25.85, "upward_expansion": 26.25, "deceleration": 52.35, "rotation_down": 33.8, "downward_expansion": 53.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 136.92, 138.347455, 134.167292, 135.876298 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 138.86, "trend_reference": 140.388601, "distance_from_trend": -0.010888, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 177.127357, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216044, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.655316, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.07646, "excess_performance": -0.202085, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010888, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089343, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216044, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121236, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216553, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.208809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07646, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.110909, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1507127, "relative_activity": 0.553887, "balance": 2.110909, "dry_up": 1.013492, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085693, "annualized_volatility": 0.551335, "from_high_reference": -0.313815, "from_low_reference": 0.242764 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 140.388601, "fair_value_reference": 177.127357, "structural_low": 111.734835, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.054834, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.010336, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.090915, "worst_return": -0.211473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01592, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.020864, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.208235, "worst_return": -0.183395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019484, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.006203, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.29807, "worst_return": -0.249684, 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"relative_strength": -26.81909, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.554265, "energy": 20.037438, "activity_lines": [ 139.645333, 137.926909, 133.713791, 136.602146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.35, "volume": 2826515, "typical_volume": 2758768.6, "trend": 141.54664, "fair_value": 177.282393, "relative_strength": -22.29449, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.237389, "energy": 10.977503, "activity_lines": [ 137.313333, 137.804545, 133.697743, 136.049629 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 138.86, "volume": 1507127, "typical_volume": 2721000.45, "trend": 140.388601, "fair_value": 177.127357, "relative_strength": -21.655316, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.997908, "energy": 12.048103, "activity_lines": [ 136.92, 138.347455, 134.167292, 135.876298 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }