{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1d103c8-f6ac-4e93-9357-b9098432ea6c", "symbol": "603803", "name": "RAISECOM TECHNOLOGY CO.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.986, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.566, "architecture_energy": 60.691, "architecture_maturity": 21.688, "architecture_confidence": 67.089, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.03, "rotation_up": 18.56, "upward_expansion": 21.37, "deceleration": 44.52, "rotation_down": 69.24, "downward_expansion": 63.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.91, 10.496, 11.918762, 12.263032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.47, "trend_reference": 12.261333, "distance_from_trend": -0.146096, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.142051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145257, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.261109, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057576, "excess_performance": 0.10078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146096, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011327, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145257, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.730694, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052611, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.499826, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057576, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.298153, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112624228, "relative_activity": 0.598488, "balance": 0.298153, "dry_up": 0.737119, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162148, "annualized_volatility": 0.722208, "from_high_reference": -0.408809, "from_low_reference": 0.310388 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.261333, "fair_value_reference": 9.142051, "structural_low": 8.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004972, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011695, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.132399, "worst_return": -0.103542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019989, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.085634, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.27095, "worst_return": -0.152448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054176, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.018461, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.135937, "worst_return": -0.019257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.306096, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.254449, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.613995, "worst_return": 0.106294, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.282401, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033363, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.256637, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085149, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12754, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005302, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.00973, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083112, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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"direction": -25.11744, "energy": 47.724093, "activity_lines": [ 11.591333, 12.378545, 13.242905, 12.953312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.63, "volume": 97422162, "typical_volume": 207134129.1, "trend": 12.442, "fair_value": 9.118013, "relative_strength": -8.597599, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.191497, "energy": 62.096798, "activity_lines": [ 10.894, 11.708364, 12.893286, 12.76828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.61, "volume": 141571201, "typical_volume": 211644529.65, "trend": 12.377333, "fair_value": 9.121538, "relative_strength": -10.030542, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.458325, "energy": 63.661492, "activity_lines": [ 10.314667, 11.160727, 12.545333, 12.58557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.19, "volume": 203229838, "typical_volume": 208207904.05, "trend": 12.282, "fair_value": 9.125128, "relative_strength": -14.366165, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.690078, "energy": 66.128361, "activity_lines": [ 9.823333, 10.658545, 12.160238, 12.379935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.47, "volume": 112624228, "typical_volume": 188181197.6, "trend": 12.261333, "fair_value": 9.142051, "relative_strength": -5.261109, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.565869, "energy": 60.691311, "activity_lines": [ 9.91, 10.496, 11.918762, 12.263032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }