{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1d15ad6-d91d-4041-90b6-99afa3bb776e", "symbol": "XCS", "name": "iShares S&P/TSX Small Cap Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.013, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.605, "architecture_energy": 15.48, "architecture_maturity": 37.657, "architecture_confidence": 79.586, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.17, "rotation_up": 30.96, "upward_expansion": 48.77, "deceleration": 79.7, "rotation_down": 32.06, "downward_expansion": 29.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.72, 35.747156, 35.917965, 35.684099 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.77, "trend_reference": 35.336105, "distance_from_trend": 0.040579, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.393426, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.507373, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.080648, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.084713, "excess_performance": -0.035708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040579, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04946, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.507373, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107753, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000806, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10943, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084713, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.398888, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28300, "relative_activity": 0.422546, "balance": 0.398888, "dry_up": 0.881299, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031392, "annualized_volatility": 0.212044, "from_high_reference": -0.024361, "from_low_reference": 0.472756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.336105, "fair_value_reference": 24.393426, "structural_low": 31.863853, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02479, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.005046, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.072646, "worst_return": -0.09374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010877, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031244, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090408, "worst_return": -0.058307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032919, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036826, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116244, "worst_return": -0.089707, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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35.887629, 35.855988, 35.55564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.450001, "volume": 45000, "typical_volume": 78555.0, "trend": 35.047754, "fair_value": 24.164006, "relative_strength": -0.367728, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.701913, "energy": 10.631753, "activity_lines": [ 35.531333, 35.768874, 35.853269, 35.58816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.950001, "volume": 94300, "typical_volume": 77010.0, "trend": 35.185199, "fair_value": 24.272693, "relative_strength": -1.549318, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.043482, "energy": 13.674803, "activity_lines": [ 35.307334, 35.578474, 35.801241, 35.581854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.77, "volume": 28300, "typical_volume": 66975.0, "trend": 35.336105, "fair_value": 24.393426, "relative_strength": 0.080648, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.604972, "energy": 15.480129, "activity_lines": [ 35.72, 35.747156, 35.917965, 35.684099 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }