{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1d3a7bc-213f-40b8-95b3-e960f0090b4a", "symbol": "300603", "name": "Leon Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.015, "architecture_energy": 52.062, "architecture_maturity": 43.913, "architecture_confidence": 91.47, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 25.22, "upward_expansion": 8.53, "deceleration": 54.76, "rotation_down": 53.24, "downward_expansion": 81.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.622, 7.697455, 8.537095, 9.149269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.96, "trend_reference": 9.775667, "distance_from_trend": -0.185733, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.981538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.202528, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.299823, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.213439, "excess_performance": -0.220838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185733, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06987, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.202528, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263283, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056099, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.213439, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.278078, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65733600, "relative_activity": 0.546167, "balance": 1.278078, "dry_up": 0.541227, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122632, "annualized_volatility": 0.504762, "from_high_reference": -0.417277, "from_low_reference": 0.195195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.775667, "fair_value_reference": 9.981538, "structural_low": 6.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.01428, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.029428, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.264038, "worst_return": -0.240081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.057921, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.103485, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.324028, "worst_return": -0.185799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.074074, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.030762, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.36514, "worst_return": -0.134429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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80.932947, "activity_lines": [ 8.328, 9.057091, 9.888048, 10.103333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.72, "volume": 9247601, "typical_volume": 139230721.8, "trend": 10.149667, "fair_value": 10.125962, "relative_strength": -37.800183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.142682, "energy": 81.73086, "activity_lines": [ 8.048667, 8.725818, 9.640048, 9.940946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.58, "volume": 66391917, "typical_volume": 134360352.85, "trend": 10.065667, "fair_value": 10.091538, "relative_strength": -35.847623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.461063, "energy": 81.169374, "activity_lines": [ 7.819333, 8.416909, 9.391095, 9.775161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.12, "volume": 58543172, "typical_volume": 132807725.55, "trend": 9.979, "fair_value": 10.058462, "relative_strength": -32.936478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.00686, "energy": 85.122987, "activity_lines": [ 7.528, 8.072, 9.114143, 9.585118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.29, "volume": 71553602, "typical_volume": 131474979.05, "trend": 9.902333, "fair_value": 10.030192, "relative_strength": -30.715853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.852106, "energy": 81.029693, "activity_lines": [ 7.38, 7.827091, 8.872333, 9.411634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.71, "volume": 64726115, "typical_volume": 124882757.4, "trend": 9.834333, "fair_value": 10.003846, "relative_strength": -24.73488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.249767, "energy": 66.299074, "activity_lines": [ 7.463333, 7.708545, 8.686095, 9.270194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.96, "volume": 65733600, "typical_volume": 120354426.15, "trend": 9.775667, "fair_value": 9.981538, "relative_strength": -25.299823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.014905, "energy": 52.061969, "activity_lines": [ 7.622, 7.697455, 8.537095, 9.149269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }