{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1d42981-1104-4841-9691-a27dc831855d", "symbol": "ICL", "name": "ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.795, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.506, "architecture_energy": 12.967, "architecture_maturity": 16.357, "architecture_confidence": 71.005, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.83, "rotation_up": 24.22, "upward_expansion": 25.89, "deceleration": 76.64, "rotation_down": 39.37, "downward_expansion": 29.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.172, 5.146182, 5.390799, 5.383915 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.31, "trend_reference": 5.362894, "distance_from_trend": -0.009863, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.154663, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030135, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.607819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015621, "excess_performance": -0.141246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009863, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006365, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030135, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196603, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146078, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111775, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015621, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.287721, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5339048, "relative_activity": 0.785943, "balance": 1.287721, "dry_up": 0.78664, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074068, "annualized_volatility": 0.482195, "from_high_reference": -0.231662, "from_low_reference": 0.135345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.362894, "fair_value_reference": 5.154663, "structural_low": 4.676992, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.022561, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.001527, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.100318, "worst_return": -0.118615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.107045, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.038689, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.194271, "worst_return": -0.144444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018726, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.085963, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.590583, "worst_return": -0.186425, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018092, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130573, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.021898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014129, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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51.0589, "activity_lines": [ 4.994667, 5.27887, 5.45114, 5.416452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.28, "volume": 5177639, "typical_volume": 7419975.9, "trend": 5.389945, "fair_value": 5.161776, "relative_strength": -12.337819, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.426939, "energy": 32.027492, "activity_lines": [ 5.082, 5.224963, 5.437991, 5.409007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.06, "volume": 4896408, "typical_volume": 6946928.25, "trend": 5.368978, "fair_value": 5.158287, "relative_strength": -16.31176, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.987298, "energy": 25.913008, "activity_lines": [ 5.086667, 5.150615, 5.401861, 5.38772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.31, "volume": 5339048, "typical_volume": 6793171.75, "trend": 5.362894, "fair_value": 5.154663, "relative_strength": -14.607819, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.505639, "energy": 12.967392, "activity_lines": [ 5.172, 5.146182, 5.390799, 5.383915 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }