{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1d61219-3db4-41e5-88f7-9895012a94ff", "symbol": "00770", "name": "Cathay S&P North Amrcn Tchnlgy Sctr ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.8, "architecture_energy": 54.508, "architecture_maturity": 72.174, "architecture_confidence": 58.105, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.78, "rotation_up": 46.83, "upward_expansion": 80.21, "deceleration": 71.4, "rotation_down": 29.47, "downward_expansion": 9.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.38, 67.211818, 65.832714, 62.996797 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 69.400002, "trend_reference": 59.579193, "distance_from_trend": 0.164836, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.424122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.59819, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.66944, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.278085, "excess_performance": -0.101227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.164836, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085408, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.59819, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037836, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083567, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.278085, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.767157, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1087824, "relative_activity": 0.544487, "balance": 5.767157, "dry_up": 0.557089, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037409, "annualized_volatility": 0.235666, "from_high_reference": -0.030726, "from_low_reference": 0.573562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.579193, "fair_value_reference": 43.424122, "structural_low": 48.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.054588, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009862, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.075166, "worst_return": 0.007234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.056039, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003383, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.160221, "worst_return": 0.022118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.185882, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.048499, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.321731, "worst_return": -0.073414, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.087818, "energy": 63.879136, "activity_lines": [ 67.279999, 67.163636, 63.559048, 60.797584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 65.75, "volume": 1259203, "typical_volume": 2214565.25, "trend": 58.211343, "fair_value": 42.661389, "relative_strength": -10.41055, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.461085, "energy": 54.4286, "activity_lines": [ 66.799999, 67.020909, 64.111809, 61.308359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.199997, "volume": 715715, "typical_volume": 2062193.3, "trend": 58.655714, "fair_value": 42.909098, "relative_strength": -11.478322, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.078766, "energy": 50.869361, "activity_lines": [ 66.526665, 66.89909, 64.642666, 61.823757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.5, "volume": 1389270, "typical_volume": 2002424.55, "trend": 59.062163, "fair_value": 43.158979, "relative_strength": -9.628882, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.596078, "energy": 43.472109, "activity_lines": [ 66.473332, 66.803636, 65.134952, 62.32984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.400002, "volume": 1087824, "typical_volume": 1997889.55, "trend": 59.579193, "fair_value": 43.424122, "relative_strength": -7.66944, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.799614, "energy": 54.507984, "activity_lines": [ 67.38, 67.211818, 65.832714, 62.996797 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }