{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1d9d179-1f09-4a56-8fd0-490b84d8bd29", "symbol": "EN", "name": "Bouygues SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.269, "architecture_energy": 19.232, "architecture_maturity": 9.037, "architecture_confidence": 75.77, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.13, "rotation_up": 19.12, "upward_expansion": 19.9, "deceleration": 64.94, "rotation_down": 51.71, "downward_expansion": 38.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.181333, 48.379636, 49.044523, 48.939457 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 48.849998, "trend_reference": 48.328107, "distance_from_trend": 0.010799, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.099841, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.391744, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.581655, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.064529, "excess_performance": -0.109717, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010799, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053194, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.391744, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129452, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095817, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138789, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064529, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02836, "annualized_volatility": 0.214551, "from_high_reference": -0.080038, "from_low_reference": 0.435284 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.328107, "fair_value_reference": 35.099841, "structural_low": 45.24574, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout 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0.093445, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.067638, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236882, "worst_return": -0.049993, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025634, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00314, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083077, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029105, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.053089, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029987, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102882, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074336, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090645, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.358644, "energy": 13.864269, "activity_lines": [ 49.480666, 49.840363, 49.697682, 48.930574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.560001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 90.4, "trend": 47.64041, "fair_value": 34.575748, "relative_strength": -12.056071, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -18.493381, "energy": 26.710485, "activity_lines": [ 48.408666, 49.212545, 49.429149, 48.871293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.869999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 79.1, "trend": 47.810749, "fair_value": 34.707349, "relative_strength": -7.709705, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.062121, "energy": 26.542904, "activity_lines": [ 48.017333, 48.882363, 49.298681, 48.886105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.470001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22.6, "trend": 47.973514, "fair_value": 34.833232, "relative_strength": -9.618433, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.272291, "energy": 42.764057, "activity_lines": [ 47.652, 48.528, 49.143675, 48.864121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.439999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22.6, "trend": 48.148776, "fair_value": 34.96395, "relative_strength": -7.712484, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.545169, "energy": 37.153609, "activity_lines": [ 47.801333, 48.408727, 49.075759, 48.894217 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.849998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22.6, "trend": 48.328107, "fair_value": 35.099841, "relative_strength": -9.581655, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.269093, "energy": 19.231706, "activity_lines": [ 48.181333, 48.379636, 49.044523, 48.939457 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }