{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1db0252-f6be-4b3d-bcc4-d57383c60527", "symbol": "MARALOVER", "name": "Maral Overseas Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.217, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.795, "architecture_energy": 31.418, "architecture_maturity": 38.638, "architecture_confidence": 57.555, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.83, "rotation_up": 37.14, "upward_expansion": 68.19, "deceleration": 70.92, "rotation_down": 25.98, "downward_expansion": 8.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.718666, 55.418181, 54.501952, 51.958 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 54.509998, "trend_reference": 48.707333, "distance_from_trend": 0.119133, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.035449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161842, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.671189, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.229364, "excess_performance": 0.273073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119133, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065884, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161842, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046681, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.126712, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002548, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.229364, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.297533, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135096, "relative_activity": 1.433752, "balance": 0.297533, "dry_up": 0.914896, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093561, "annualized_volatility": 0.487762, "from_high_reference": -0.171455, "from_low_reference": 0.598065 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.707333, "fair_value_reference": 65.035449, "structural_low": 34.110001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.044706, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.015015, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.227488, "worst_return": -0.125855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013417, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.076829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.31663, "worst_return": -0.127647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.057394, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.146854, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.160026, "worst_return": -0.236817, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 9.854455, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.439881, "energy": 23.57871, "activity_lines": [ 54.237999, 55.086908, 52.790381, 50.315161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.0, "volume": 56312, "typical_volume": 88127.25, "trend": 47.782, "fair_value": 65.001987, "relative_strength": 18.646709, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.343446, "energy": 25.501178, "activity_lines": [ 54.667999, 55.16909, 53.404238, 50.872494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.360001, "volume": 100255, "typical_volume": 90065.6, "trend": 48.262667, "fair_value": 65.019359, "relative_strength": 21.184261, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.860019, "energy": 35.831257, "activity_lines": [ 55.951333, 55.637818, 54.178714, 51.554946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.509998, "volume": 135096, "typical_volume": 94225.5, "trend": 48.707333, "fair_value": 65.035449, "relative_strength": 12.671189, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.795121, "energy": 31.417825, "activity_lines": [ 55.718666, 55.418181, 54.501952, 51.958 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }