{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e1e46467-abeb-45e6-81bd-413d05c2ead7",
    "symbol": "XSFD",
    "name": "Xtrackers S&P Select Frontier Swap UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 55.479,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 70.918,
    "architecture_energy": 52.406,
    "architecture_maturity": 21.149,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.291,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.73,
        "rotation_up": 52.77,
        "upward_expansion": 81.79,
        "deceleration": 54.37,
        "rotation_down": 25.31,
        "downward_expansion": 8.45
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        30.170834,
        30.026136,
        29.862262,
        29.395086
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 30.495001,
    "trend_reference": 28.929667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.054108,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 22.336406,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36526,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 0.955244,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.093893,
    "excess_performance": 0.042658,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054108,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028903,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.36526,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.035702,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009552,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.052345,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.093893,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.275794,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1223,
      "relative_activity": 0.175636,
      "balance": 0.275794,
      "dry_up": 0.217822,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.019946,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.191281,
      "from_high_reference": -0.015337,
      "from_low_reference": 0.245711
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 28.929667,
      "fair_value_reference": 22.336406,
      "structural_low": 24.879999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 38,
        "median_return": 0.012771,
        "positive_rate": 0.710526,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.710526,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000891,
        "regime_survival": 0.789474,
        "best_return": 0.077229,
        "worst_return": -0.120465,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.04859,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005002,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.197936,
        "worst_return": -0.168705,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.097686,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": 0.009188,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
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        "worst_return": -0.040924,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.067775,
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        "worst_return": -0.220982,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.011705,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 29.82,
        "volume": 2972,
        "typical_volume": 5742.4,
        "trend": 27.624394,
        "fair_value": 21.159611,
        "relative_strength": 5.212499,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.257472,
        "energy": 64.346636,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.5615,
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          28.172988,
          28.010281
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 1218,
        "typical_volume": 5674.95,
        "trend": 27.754227,
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        "relative_strength": 6.189711,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.325711,
        "energy": 78.51296,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 29.405001,
        "volume": 1858,
        "typical_volume": 5405.1,
        "trend": 27.873893,
        "fair_value": 21.341422,
        "relative_strength": 5.093691,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 63.062268,
        "energy": 73.057715,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.713334,
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          28.430822,
          28.25537
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 29.4825,
        "volume": 3812,
        "typical_volume": 5559.45,
        "trend": 27.984083,
        "fair_value": 21.431742,
        "relative_strength": 2.57141,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.512619,
        "energy": 49.632733,
        "activity_lines": [
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          28.359151
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 30.827499,
        "volume": 2886,
        "typical_volume": 5359.95,
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        "fair_value": 21.529146,
        "relative_strength": 7.636573,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 54.556125,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 29.4725,
        "volume": 29215,
        "typical_volume": 6779.05,
        "trend": 28.234667,
        "fair_value": 21.614996,
        "relative_strength": 3.196054,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 56.781026,
        "energy": 42.790699,
        "activity_lines": [
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          28.870369,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 29.5,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 6775.0,
        "trend": 28.334917,
        "fair_value": 21.699194,
        "relative_strength": 2.141869,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 37.410079,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "trend": 28.461667,
        "fair_value": 21.780765,
        "relative_strength": 3.28552,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 29.295,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 6756.1,
        "trend": 28.530917,
        "fair_value": 21.857351,
        "relative_strength": 0.861824,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.138484,
        "energy": 23.510852,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.535167,
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          28.845129
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 30.135,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 6731.15,
        "trend": 28.610417,
        "fair_value": 21.941646,
        "relative_strength": 1.996437,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.761328,
        "energy": 31.91312,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.669167,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 30.469999,
        "volume": 1010,
        "typical_volume": 6739.85,
        "trend": 28.720833,
        "fair_value": 22.024579,
        "relative_strength": 4.78157,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.172322,
        "energy": 55.123382,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.961,
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          29.449059,
          29.068591
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 29.985001,
        "volume": 2564,
        "typical_volume": 6865.95,
        "trend": 28.795083,
        "fair_value": 22.10147,
        "relative_strength": 2.089906,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.363399,
        "energy": 60.611262,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.024667,
          29.888864,
          29.562667,
          29.150151
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 29.622499,
        "volume": 1516,
        "typical_volume": 6872.1,
        "trend": 28.831,
        "fair_value": 22.175364,
        "relative_strength": -0.398709,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.282846,
        "energy": 59.033896,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.935166,
          29.854,
          29.633238,
          29.203532
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 30.195,
        "volume": 764,
        "typical_volume": 6905.45,
        "trend": 28.889917,
        "fair_value": 22.254242,
        "relative_strength": 0.237841,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.985626,
        "energy": 62.34155,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.033,
          29.919273,
          29.744024,
          29.291532
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 30.495001,
        "volume": 1223,
        "typical_volume": 6963.25,
        "trend": 28.929667,
        "fair_value": 22.336406,
        "relative_strength": 0.955244,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.918283,
        "energy": 52.406405,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.170834,
          30.026136,
          29.862262,
          29.395086
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}