{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1e90726-93a1-459b-94fa-80422e518cb8", "symbol": "EWZS", "name": "ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL SMALL-CAP ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.453, "architecture_energy": 41.795, "architecture_maturity": 19.07, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.07, "rotation_up": 22.21, "upward_expansion": 5.49, "deceleration": 48.42, "rotation_down": 51.94, "downward_expansion": 78.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.007873, 13.051093, 13.443131, 13.722867 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.8, "trend_reference": 14.030257, "distance_from_trend": -0.087686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.281121, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04225, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.824807, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136173, "excess_performance": -0.323627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 4.5e-05, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04225, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178248, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120702, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136173, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.275075, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 486207, "relative_activity": 0.262779, "balance": 0.275075, "dry_up": 0.323454, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05958, "annualized_volatility": 0.316373, "from_high_reference": -0.214279, "from_low_reference": 0.077256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.030257, "fair_value_reference": 12.281121, "structural_low": 12.545, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.002335, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.038975, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.188317, "worst_return": -0.104992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.026792, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.009025, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.316086, "worst_return": -0.120244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.104455, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.003759, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.235236, "worst_return": -0.119109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 13.092047, 13.128435, 13.610149, 13.856898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.21, "volume": 415116, "typical_volume": 1885873.2, "trend": 14.049303, "fair_value": 12.284677, "relative_strength": -11.137753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.4315, "energy": 29.653736, "activity_lines": [ 13.123387, 13.120983, 13.545686, 13.803468 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.8, "volume": 486207, "typical_volume": 1850250.6, "trend": 14.030257, "fair_value": 12.281121, "relative_strength": -17.824807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.453112, "energy": 41.795353, "activity_lines": [ 13.007873, 13.051093, 13.443131, 13.722867 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }