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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.593, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 10.746, "architecture_energy": 29.072, "architecture_maturity": 43.7, "architecture_confidence": 46.531, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.32, "rotation_up": 49.34, "upward_expansion": 38.03, "deceleration": 36.22, "rotation_down": 19.46, "downward_expansion": 48.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 2911.789323, 2832.686359, 2767.245457, 2844.269169 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2984.02002, "trend_reference": 2955.38173, "distance_from_trend": 0.00969, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2578.20027, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.157404, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.9925, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.071914, "excess_performance": -0.014865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00969, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028838, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.157404, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175334, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039925, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.259902, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071914, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.413265, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 229, "relative_activity": 3.077957, "balance": 3.413265, "dry_up": 1.663306, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047811, "annualized_volatility": 0.356574, "from_high_reference": -0.247563, "from_low_reference": 0.31582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2955.38173, "fair_value_reference": 2578.20027, "structural_low": 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2.410741, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.531834, "energy": 15.429018, "activity_lines": [ 2789.542692, 2744.924228, 2737.332344, 2840.856444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2963.379883, "volume": 49, "typical_volume": 65.05, "trend": 2952.303263, "fair_value": 2572.313994, "relative_strength": 0.16033, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.072232, "energy": 18.339159, "activity_lines": [ 2858.846647, 2789.779714, 2750.293902, 2842.222927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2984.02002, "volume": 229, "typical_volume": 74.4, "trend": 2955.38173, "fair_value": 2578.20027, "relative_strength": 3.9925, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.745795, "energy": 29.071642, "activity_lines": [ 2911.789323, 2832.686359, 2767.245457, 2844.269169 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }