{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1e970d9-96ac-43bb-bfa7-b7a60e0db9a8", "symbol": "BFOR", "name": "ALPS ETF TRUST BARRONS 400 ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.841, "architecture_energy": 65.12, "architecture_maturity": 59.067, "architecture_confidence": 79.305, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 59.44, "upward_expansion": 84.0, "deceleration": 65.69, "rotation_down": 25.75, "downward_expansion": 10.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.804407, 23.666594, 23.192693, 22.751166 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.3441, "trend_reference": 22.27193, "distance_from_trend": 0.09304, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.311525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329441, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.511832, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111603, "excess_performance": -0.014022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09304, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046888, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.329441, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051536, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015118, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035351, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111603, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.637389, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81554, "relative_activity": 1.546099, "balance": 1.637389, "dry_up": 2.593228, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022131, "annualized_volatility": 0.126928, "from_high_reference": -0.006363, "from_low_reference": 0.268147 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.27193, "fair_value_reference": 18.311525, "structural_low": 20.2625, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.011991, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.004772, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.063535, "worst_return": -0.086928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.029088, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.004677, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.08955, "worst_return": -0.063082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.068606, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.010448, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.136535, "worst_return": -0.040697, "sufficient": true }, { 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82.475179, "energy": 91.538175, "activity_lines": [ 23.482005, 23.07716, 22.510936, 22.202849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.6872, "volume": 69372, "typical_volume": 35735.3, "trend": 21.912721, "fair_value": 18.076219, "relative_strength": 1.299959, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.572581, "energy": 87.348961, "activity_lines": [ 23.6215, 23.24022, 22.664245, 22.323525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.3526, "volume": 182449, "typical_volume": 43440.95, "trend": 21.995391, "fair_value": 18.133321, "relative_strength": 1.427261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.006178, "energy": 83.001996, "activity_lines": [ 23.568045, 23.316796, 22.777831, 22.416421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.4044, "volume": 55958, "typical_volume": 41617.8, "trend": 22.075121, "fair_value": 18.189243, "relative_strength": 2.220134, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.42413, "energy": 64.06387, "activity_lines": [ 23.51888, 23.385537, 22.889518, 22.507324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.685, "volume": 227192, "typical_volume": 50077.3, "trend": 22.174439, "fair_value": 18.247995, "relative_strength": 2.284908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.05763, "energy": 57.821388, "activity_lines": [ 23.553653, 23.477943, 23.016925, 22.611188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.3441, "volume": 81554, "typical_volume": 52748.25, "trend": 22.27193, "fair_value": 18.311525, "relative_strength": 1.511832, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.841029, "energy": 65.120384, "activity_lines": [ 23.804407, 23.666594, 23.192693, 22.751166 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }