{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1eba84b-88a9-43fb-a46b-68f0b4c4f3e7", "symbol": "601918", "name": "China Coal Xinji Energy Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.566, "architecture_energy": 39.635, "architecture_maturity": 20.626, "architecture_confidence": 86.359, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.44, "rotation_up": 55.76, "upward_expansion": 77.6, "deceleration": 60.08, "rotation_down": 18.58, "downward_expansion": 4.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.694562, 9.515943, 9.31778, 8.961979 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.82, "trend_reference": 8.443304, "distance_from_trend": 0.163052, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.104164, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.382288, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 28.679324, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.350846, "excess_performance": 0.39405, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.163052, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114268, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.382288, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107211, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.286793, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168232, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.350846, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.744895, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 250912357, "relative_activity": 1.108066, "balance": 1.744895, "dry_up": 1.108555, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095287, "annualized_volatility": 0.421794, "from_high_reference": -0.127886, "from_low_reference": 0.597447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.443304, "fair_value_reference": 7.104164, "structural_low": 6.782896, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.049447, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.062508, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.318898, "worst_return": -0.257956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.18703, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.208621, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.493204, "worst_return": -0.232993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.276006, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.322209, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.490402, "worst_return": -0.073922, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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9.670366, "volume": 173610129, "typical_volume": 230054108.75, "trend": 8.334785, "fair_value": 7.066987, "relative_strength": 31.242271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.129935, "energy": 37.560953, "activity_lines": [ 9.580807, 9.472555, 9.22494, 8.866159 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.82, "volume": 250912357, "typical_volume": 226441786.85, "trend": 8.443304, "fair_value": 7.104164, "relative_strength": 28.679324, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.566209, "energy": 39.634802, "activity_lines": [ 9.694562, 9.515943, 9.31778, 8.961979 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }