{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1fc594e-a596-4d6e-9a74-d4d18ac7b355", "symbol": "002790", "name": "Xiamen R&T Plumbing Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.83, "architecture_energy": 61.065, "architecture_maturity": 99.477, "architecture_confidence": 93.883, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.94, "rotation_up": 29.06, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.91, "rotation_down": 49.28, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.558, 5.591234, 6.05312, 6.530154 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.69, "trend_reference": 7.168055, "distance_from_trend": -0.2062, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.391961, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.32197, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.520555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.329009, "excess_performance": -0.336409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.2062, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14103, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.32197, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186336, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.285206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044789, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.329009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.374281, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20749500, "relative_activity": 1.09483, "balance": 0.374281, "dry_up": 1.136171, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07568, "annualized_volatility": 0.226619, "from_high_reference": -0.569592, "from_low_reference": 0.102713 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.168055, "fair_value_reference": 8.391961, "structural_low": 5.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.000986, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.321014, "worst_return": -0.168605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038363, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.048901, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.52872, "worst_return": -0.30539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.203924, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.137974, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.845582, "worst_return": -0.097528, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.700305, "energy": 69.177145, "activity_lines": [ 5.476667, 5.649706, 6.256897, 6.745258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.6, "volume": 22804108, "typical_volume": 18737262.9, "trend": 7.258055, "fair_value": 8.420541, "relative_strength": -26.606403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.36843, "energy": 64.171489, "activity_lines": [ 5.508, 5.600813, 6.144794, 6.631319 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.69, "volume": 20749500, "typical_volume": 18952249.3, "trend": 7.168055, "fair_value": 8.391961, "relative_strength": -28.520555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.829617, "energy": 61.065304, "activity_lines": [ 5.558, 5.591234, 6.05312, 6.530154 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }