{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e20240ec-3e97-47c0-a381-1a194e45234a", "symbol": "M79", "name": "Mammoth Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.03, "architecture_energy": 50.134, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.968, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.4, "rotation_up": 28.59, "upward_expansion": 12.88, "deceleration": 59.24, "rotation_down": 45.94, "downward_expansion": 74.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.041267, 0.041273, 0.046829, 0.052437 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.044, "trend_reference": 0.0646, "distance_from_trend": -0.318885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.081256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.4585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.933679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.435897, "excess_performance": -0.499603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.318885, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29808, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.4585, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29778, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.539337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.435897, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.221053, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1572437, "relative_activity": 0.538012, "balance": 0.221053, "dry_up": 0.618582, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16521, "annualized_volatility": 1.073188, "from_high_reference": -0.768421, "from_low_reference": 0.294118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0646, "fair_value_reference": 0.081256, "structural_low": 0.034, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.048103, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.411765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.130435, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.095942, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.61818, "worst_return": -0.390244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.102043, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.075525, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217391, "worst_return": -0.013305, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.042, "volume": 1410236, "typical_volume": 3434209.75, "trend": 0.074633, "fair_value": 0.082724, "relative_strength": -55.641099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.994392, "energy": 69.22478, "activity_lines": [ 0.041, 0.045327, 0.051705, 0.060123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.041, "volume": 2066547, "typical_volume": 3330424.95, "trend": 0.072, "fair_value": 0.082435, "relative_strength": -56.193537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.32266, "energy": 59.438353, "activity_lines": [ 0.041067, 0.0436, 0.050186, 0.057953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.041, "volume": 2147829, "typical_volume": 3248768.7, "trend": 0.069533, "fair_value": 0.082172, "relative_strength": -55.594835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.593155, "energy": 59.670144, "activity_lines": [ 0.041267, 0.042436, 0.048876, 0.055953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.038, "volume": 1444850, "typical_volume": 3089306.9, "trend": 0.066967, "fair_value": 0.081839, "relative_strength": -59.375978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.442294, "energy": 60.182799, "activity_lines": [ 0.0404, 0.041127, 0.047476, 0.053918 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.044, "volume": 1572437, "typical_volume": 2922678.9, "trend": 0.0646, "fair_value": 0.081256, "relative_strength": -53.933679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.029645, "energy": 50.134287, "activity_lines": [ 0.041267, 0.041273, 0.046829, 0.052437 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }