{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e203a29b-4686-4543-8f2c-678ae560701d", "symbol": "NGY", "name": "NuEnergy Gas Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.561, "architecture_energy": 49.343, "architecture_maturity": 19.701, "architecture_confidence": 76.873, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.79, "rotation_up": 70.29, "upward_expansion": 56.73, "deceleration": 13.63, "rotation_down": 15.05, "downward_expansion": 24.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0406, 0.038491, 0.03619, 0.036665 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.041, "trend_reference": 0.0374, "distance_from_trend": 0.096257, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.027006, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.518158, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.789706, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.025, "excess_performance": -0.038706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096257, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071633, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.518158, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.249865, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.137897, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083731, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.935823, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3862527, "relative_activity": 0.961148, "balance": 0.935823, "dry_up": 0.653396, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116323, "annualized_volatility": 1.049222, "from_high_reference": -0.568421, "from_low_reference": 0.952381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0374, "fair_value_reference": 0.027006, "structural_low": 0.027, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.093333, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.063558, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.358974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.12898, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.3125, "worst_return": -0.410256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.177778, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.144303, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.842105, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.1, 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"return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.65, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.458333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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"energy": 15.813082, "activity_lines": [ 0.033533, 0.032436, 0.034214, 0.035495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.04, "volume": 656691, "typical_volume": 3942735.55, "trend": 0.036367, "fair_value": 0.026686, "relative_strength": 18.113645, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.098988, "energy": 16.235334, "activity_lines": [ 0.0364, 0.033745, 0.034571, 0.035753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.038, "volume": 797567, "typical_volume": 3792466.8, "trend": 0.036467, "fair_value": 0.02675, "relative_strength": 12.017681, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.065527, "energy": 23.506161, "activity_lines": [ 0.037867, 0.034673, 0.034771, 0.035858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.04, "volume": 2523264, "typical_volume": 3767803.9, "trend": 0.036867, "fair_value": 0.026833, "relative_strength": 17.934653, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.769489, "energy": 36.526546, "activity_lines": [ 0.039333, 0.035891, 0.035162, 0.036086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.042, "volume": 3319748, "typical_volume": 3852301.7, "trend": 0.037167, "fair_value": 0.026968, "relative_strength": 20.55854, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.665317, "energy": 51.064614, "activity_lines": [ 0.0406, 0.037382, 0.035733, 0.036417 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.041, "volume": 3862527, "typical_volume": 4018659.1, "trend": 0.0374, "fair_value": 0.027006, "relative_strength": 13.789706, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.560517, "energy": 49.343137, "activity_lines": [ 0.0406, 0.038491, 0.03619, 0.036665 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }